The fall season is a little over a month away. Networks have shown off their product at the Television Critics Association conference, as well as the handful that are premiering at Comic Con. My predictions are only of the fall shows, and not the midseason replacements.

ABC:

First Renewal: How To Get Away With Murder. Obviously Shonda Rhimes’s buzzy new drama, which follows Scandal, will be the first renewal of the new season. It’s so far ahead of everything else in ABC’s lineup.

First Cancellation: This is a lot tougher, because ABC has slotted two new sitcoms in the Tuesday 8-9PM slot, and I think both have targets on their back. Selfie and Manhattan Love Story should both be the first cancellations, but it is possible that ABC may only cancel one, and try and save the other.

Leaning Towards Full Season: The bar is so low for Tuesday at 10PM, that if Forever can do even pretty good… it’ll get a full season. Same with the Wednesday at 930 slot that Black-ish occupies. ABC has been trying to plug these holes for years, and if these shows show even a bit of promise they’ll get a full season.

Leaning Towards Cancellation: I don’t have high hopes for Cristela. ABC has other sitcoms waiting in the wings, and I find it more likely that Cristela won’t go beyond the original 13 episode order.

CBS:

First Renewal: NCIS: New Orleans has the best shot at being the first renewal, though CBS has the strongest batch of new shows. Any of them could be breakouts and get renewed before or at the same time as the new NCIS show.

First Cancellation: I’m going to go with The McCarthy’s, which isn’t premiering until late October, but I think the 4 new dramas are all strong. There’s a chance that Scorpion or Stalker bombs, like Hostages did, but I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt.

Leaning Toward Renewal: I’d place all new CBS dramas in this category, including Madam Secretary, Scorpion, Stalker, and CSI: Cyber.

Leaning Toward Cancellation: Other than The McCarthys, which could end up getting a full season also, I don’t think CBS has a lot of weak spots in their lineup.

FOX:

First Renewal: Gotham. The stakes on Gotham are too high. FOX will want to make a big statement, and might give it a renewal after the 1st or 2nd episode.

First Cancellation: I think Utopia will get abandoned. Reality TV hasn’t really produced a new hit in a long time. FOX is really banking heavily on Utopia, giving it two hours in the week. The first hour is against NCIS, The Voice, and The Flash. The second hour is on Friday. I don’t think Utopia is the hit FOX is hoping it will be.

Leaning Towards Renewal: Gracepoint is in  tough timeslot, but I think it will still do well. I’m still on the fence about Red Band Society, but I think FOX will try to give it a full season.

Leaning Towards Cancellation: Mulaney already has a ton of episodes ordered, but I worry that FOX’s attempt to air live-action sitcoms in the former Animation Domination isn’t going to work well, which could lead to Mulaney not getting a 2nd season. I don’t think FOX would cancel Brooklyn Nine-Nine, but it’s easier to cancel a freshman show. I think Mulaney could turn it around though, if it becomes a buzzy show like Brooklyn Nine Nine.

NBC:

First Renewal: Constantine. It has a timeslot that has low expectations, it’s a buzzy show, and it follows Grimm. It’s the easiest bet.

First Cancellation: It’ll be one of the comedies, for sure. Marry Me is paired with About A Boy, the only returning comedy in the fall, but also not a huge ratings hit. It does have the benefit of following The Voice. A To Z and Bad Judge follow The Biggest Loser, which is not a great lead in, and lead out to Parenthood. NBC clearly has no interest in salvaging their Thursday Night former Must See TV lineup.

Leaning Toward Renewal: NBC will probably keep Mysteries Of Laura, out of desperation.

Leaning Toward Cancellation: I don’t think any of the comedies will make it out alive.

The CW:

First Renewal: Obviously The Flash.

First Cancellation: Jane The Virgin.  The CW has only two new shows in the fall, and The Flash is a clear winner. Jane The Virgin used to be on brand for The CW, but this type of show is really going away, and the CW is embracing a different future with shows like Arrow, Supernatural, and The Vampire Diaries. Hart of Dixie is struggling, and it’s really the “last of its kind”. Even Reign is taking a more super-serious approach.