I mentioned yesterday that I was pretty sure this would be the most boring category of the bunch.I think this is where The bear picks up some serious clout, as I’m not sure they have much realistic competition.

1) Ebon Moss-Bacharach (The Bear)

Eban was so good in the second season as Ritchie, he went from my least favorite character, to my favorite on the series. His whole character setup, starting out as an obnoxious loser in the beginning of the first season, so where he is now, as a true adult, with a full understanding of what his craft is, and a newfound maturity, is truly one of the greatest written arcs of all time. Ritchie’s arc is why Eban will win, and we need human writers and never AI.

2) Tyler James Williams (Abbott Elementary)

Of all the non-Bear folk, I think Tyler has the best shot at retaining his spot among the nominees. He’s getting inn the “safe” zone, where this may not be true forever. He’s become the Jim of the series,and John Krasinski didn’t get quite as many Emmy nominations as Rainn Wilson. that being said, his Abbott competition for supporting male has yet to even make the cut.

Lionel Boyce (The Bear)

Marcus had his own episode in Season 2, and when voters are going down the list, I think they will remember him a lot easier because of that. The Bear is getting a “bear” minimum of two nominations here, and Marcus (as a character) seems best positioned.

4) Ricky Martin (Palm Royale)

Between him and josh Lucas, I feel like martin might have surprised people a bit more with his acting skills, while Lucas was predictably Josh Lucas. I don’t feel great about this nomination, but everything beyond the top 3 could easily just become “pick a guy from The Bear.”

5) John Goodman (The Righteous Gemstones)

It’s a bold swing, because I’m really the only one predicting Gemstones, but I just don’t think The Gentleman belongs in this category, gen V won’t get an acting nomination, Only Murders In The building’s best shot at a supporting male performance is really that Matthew Broderick cameo, and I just don’t see a lot of choices. Goodman has been around forever, and giving him a nomination as Eli Gemstone would be a perfect choice. Plus, HBO is going to campaign hard for their shows, and Paul W Downs really didn’t do that much on Hacks this season.

6) Paul W Downs (Hacks)

A previous nominee, I just mentioned above, I put his chances lower because his content was much less. There are entire episodes he’s not in. A better pick here might even be Christopher Macdonald, who reliably slips in and out of the series. But, downs is also a creator, and I think that matters.

7) Oliver Platt (The Bear)

Looking at the remaining Bear cast, I can’t help but notice Oliver Platt, a well regarded actor in a sea of mostly unknown actors (outside of The Bear). His screentime elevates him to Supporting, over Jon Bernthal (who likely has a guest spot coming his way). I’m predicting a minimum of three nominations for The Bear, and I give Platt the edge.

88) If There’s An 8th Noineee…

I would love to see Rick Glassman (Not Dead Yet), Josh Segura (The Big Door prize), Walton Goggins (The Righteous Gemstones), Con O’Neill (Our Flag Means Death), or one of the Abbot boys, but something tells me if we get 8 nominees, we get 4 from The Bear. Just who has the best shot? That, I’m not sure. If it wasn’t The Bear, Walton Goggins does have an uncanny ability to attract awards attention, and maybe he can get a nomination for his bizarre Babby Billy performance.