Box Office Predictions- May 24th-26th

Memorial Day weekend is upon us, and Hollywood is trying to attack you with two brand new sequels to some high-profile franchises, as well as a kids cartoon that could do really well with a complete lack of competition.

1) Fast and Furious 6- 87M Weekend, 87M total

Fast Five opened a few years back, in April, and managed about the same box office. However, Fast Five didn’t open the same weekend as a Hangover sequel, and the second weekend of Star Trek. Granted, the buzz for Fast and Furious 6 is incredibly high (it even has a positive score on Rotten Tomatoes), so there’s no doubt it’ll win the weekend. It’ll even likely break 100M on Memorial Day.  Fast Five went on to gross 209M at the box office, a feat that seems likely to be beaten by Fast 6, as it will have a Memorial Day boost. Opening in over 3,600 screens, Fast 6 is the movie to beat this weekend.

2) Hangover 3- 64M Weekend, 80M total

The Hangover 3 is attempting to get the jump on Fast and Furious 6 by opening on Thursday. That, plus some midnights, should put its total within striking distance. However, Hangover 2 wasn’t as well liked as the first one, whereas Fast Five was the highest grossing sequel in the franchise. Fast and Furious 6 is building, whereas Hangover 3 is shrinking. Plus, Hangover 3 carries an R rating, making it harder to do boffo business. Opening in around 3,450 theatres, Hangover 3 is going to have to settle for second place leading into Memorial Day.

3) Star Trek: Into Darkness- 32M Weekend, 137M Total

After opening below expectations last week, Star Trek is now facing two sequels that are pulling from the same male audience. A drop of around 58%, even with solid word of mouth, is likely.

4) Epic- 27M Weekend, 27M Total

The word about Epic hasn’t been astounding, but it also has the benefit of being the only kids movie in the marketplace. This may feel like a retread for anyone who is a fan of Ferngully, and trailers have made it into more of an animated adventure, instead of an animated comedy. It’s not a sequel, nor is it a Pixar movie, so it has to stand on its own. With no real competition, Epic should do OK with 27M over the weekend, and a really solid Memorial Day gross.

5) Iron Man 3- 16M Weekend, 365M Total

Heading into its fourth weekend, Iron Man 3 will face a lot of direct competition now, from Star Trek, Hangover 3, and Fast 6. Another drop of more than 50% is likely.

6) The Great Gatsby- 12M Weekend, 110M Total

Facing less direct competition is Great Gatsby. Because of that, it likely won’t drop over 50%, and will stay with its head above 10M.

The Rest Of The Top 10:

7) Pain and Gain- 2M Weekend, 50M Total

8) The Croods- 2M Weekend, 180M Total

9) 42- 1.5M Weekend, 91M Total

10) Mud- 1.5M Weekend- 13M Total

Weekend Box Office- May 17th-19th

1) Star Trek: Into Darkness- 70.5 weekend, 84.0 total

These are interesting times when a 70.5 opening can be considered a disappointment for the Star Trek franchise. That’s because the film was overhyped, and projected initially to do 100M over four days. This is still a strong opening, and regardless of how you feel about the sequel, it’s on track to break 200M, easily. This next week adds some incredibly fierce competition that will knock it down a few pegs, and will set the tone for a more stable final prediction. Right now, I’m guessing somewhere around 240M, but I could see a harder than deserved drop due to Fast 6 and Hangover 3.

2) Iron Man 3- 35.1 weekend, 337.0 total

Dropping 51% in its third weekend, Iron Man 3 continues to be a strong force for ticket buyers. Just like Star Trek, however, next week features two high profile sequels targeting a male audience. Expect Iron Man 3 to lose another large chunk of box office.

3) The Great Gatsby- 23.4 weekend, 90.1 total

The summer typically features a few high profile flops, and The Great Gatsby had its naysayers (including me). However, the Leo Dicaprio film is proving itself against more typical summer fare. Next week won’t be as bad for Gatsby, as it targets a large female audience that won’t be as interested in Hangover or Fast sequels.

4) Pain and Gain- 3.1 weekend, 46.5 total

5) The Croods- 2.7 weekend, 176.7 total

6) 42- 2.7 weekend, 88.7 total

7) Oblivion- 2.2 weekend, 85.5 total

8) Mud- 2.1 weekend, 11.5 total

9) Peeples- 2.1 weekend, 7.8 total

10) The Big Wedding- 1.1 weekend, 20.1 total

 

Fall TV Preview: Night By Night Comparison

Now that all the major networks have announced their lineups, here’s a look at each night, and a prediction of what’s going to happen.

SUNDAY:

8PM: Once Upon A Time (ABC), The Amazing Race (CBS), Football (NBC), The Simpsons/Bobs Burgers (FOX)

Football draws the largest audience, obviously. I expect Once Upon A Time to continue to lead in the scripted area.

9PM: Revenge (ABC), The Good Wife (CBS), Football (NBC), Family Guy/American Dad (FOX)

Revenge used to be ahead of The Good Wife, but has been dipping a lot recently. I expect The Good Wife to come out on top of Revenge next season, right out of the gate.

10PM: Betrayal (ABC), The Mentalist (CBS), Football (NBC)

Betrayal will lose to The Mentalist. By how much will determine how long Betrayal stays on the air (honestly, it’s one of the least promising pilots in my opinion).

 

MONDAY:

8PM: Dancing With The Stars (ABC), How I Met Your Mother/We Are Men (CBS), The Voice (NBC), Bones/Almost Human (FOX), Hart Of Dixie (CW)

1) The Voice, 2) Dancing, 3) Bones/Almost Human, 4) HIMYM/WAM, 5) Hart Of Dixie. Pretty easy predictions.

9PM: Dancing With The Stars (ABC), 2 Broke Girls, Mom (CBS), The Voice (NBC), Sleepy Hollow (FOX), Beauty and the Beast (CW)

1) The Voice, 2) 2 Broke Girls/Mom, 3) Dancing, 4) Sleepy H0llow, 5) Beauty and the Beast

I think The Voice will edge out 2 Broke Girls/Mom, but it’s possible that The Voice will drop more in the fall, and dip to second place.

10PM: Castle (ABC), Hostages (CBS), Blacklist (NBC)

NBC is touting Blacklist as the best show ever. The trailer for Hostages looks fantastic. Castle does solid in the ratings. This is going to be tough. I hate to say it, but… 1) Hostages, 2) Blacklist, 3) Castle. As Dancing With The Stars becomes a weaker lead in, Castle will struggle more and more to stand on its own. If Hostages and Blacklist continue to be two of the most hyped shows leading into the fall, they could both beat Castle.

 

TUESDAY:

8PM: Agents Of Shield (ABC), NCIS (CBS), The Biggest Loser (NBC), Dads/Brooklyn Nine-Nine (FOX), The Originals (CW)

This is a penis measuring match, as ABC pits their hottest show (and honestly the hottest pilot on any network) against the most watched show on TV. If they can beat NCIS, that’s a huge victory for them. I’m guessing they can’t. NCIS’s audience is pretty big. FOX’s sitcoms are incredibly promising, and should actually do quite well, but they won’t win this timeslot. And it’s possible that if The Originals does Vampire Diaries numbers, and if Biggest Loser slips, CW might be in 4th place. 1) NCIS, 2) Agents Of Shield, 3) Dads/Brooklyn Nine-Nine, 4) The Biggest Loser, 5) The Originals

9PM: Goldbergs/Trophy Wife (ABC), NCIS LA (CBS), The Voice Results (NBC), New Girl/Mindy Project (FOX), Supernatural (CW)

This is really easy. 1) NCIS LA, 2) Voice Results, 3) Goldbergs/Trophy Wife, 4) New Girl/Mindy Project, 5) Supernatural.

I think there’s a chance that New Girl beats Goldbergs, but no way will Mindy Project beat Trophy Wife. I’m betting Mindy Project doesn’t survive its second season.

10PM: Lucky 7 (ABC), Person Of Interest (CBS), Chicago Fire (NBC)

Lucky 7 looks awful.  1) Person Of Interest, 2) Chicago Fire, 3) Lucky 7

WEDNESDAY:

8PM: The Middle/Back In The Game (ABC), Survivor (CBS), Revolution (NBC), X-Factor (FOX), Arrow (CW)

I’m banking on another large drop for X-Factor. If it lasts another year, Arrow might surpass it.

1) Survivor, 2) Revolution, 3) The Middle/Back In The Game, 4) X-Factor, 5) Arrow

9PM: Modern Family/Super Fun Night (ABC), Criminal Minds (CBS), Law and Order SVU (NBC), X-Factor (FOX), The Tomorrow People (CW).

1) Modern Family/Super Fun Night, 2) Criminal Minds, 3) Law and Order SVU, 4) X-Factor, 5) Tomorrow People

10PM: Nashville (ABC), CSI (CBS), Ironside (NBC)

1) CSI, 2) Nashville, 3) Ironside

THURSDAY:

8PM: Once Upon A Time In Wonderland (ABC), Big Bang Theory/The Millers (CBS), Parks and Rec/Welcome To The Family (NBC), X-Factor Results (FOX), Vampire Diaries (CW)

1) Big Bang Theory/The Millers, 2) Once Upon A Time In Wonderland, 3) Parks and Rec/Welcome To The Family, 4) Vampire Diaries, 5) X-Factor Results

9PM: Grey’s Anatomy (ABC), The Crazy Ones/Two and a Half Men (CBS), Sean Saves The World/Michael J Fox Show (NBC), Glee (FOX), Reign (CW)

1) The Crazy Ones/Two and a Half Men, 2) Grey’s Anatomy, 3) Sean Saves The World/Michael J Fox Show, 4) Glee, 5) Reign

I actually think more people will be watching MJFox than Grey’s, but Sean will be enough below it to balance out the average.

10PM: Scandal (ABC), Elementary (CBS), Parenthood (NBC)

1) Scandal, 2) Elementary, 3) Parenthood

Scandal is SCORCHING hot right now. This fall debut should be insane.

FRIDAY:

8PM: Last Man Standing/The Neighbors (ABC), Undercover Boss (CBS), Dateline (NBC), Bones (FOX), Carrie Diaries (CW)

When Bones moves here, it’ll shake things up. 1) Undercover Boss, 2) Bones, 3) Last Man Standing/The Neighbors, 4) Dateline, 5) Carrie Diaries

9PM: Shark Tank (ABC), Hawaii Five O (CBS), Grimm (NBC), Raising Hope/Enlisted (FOX), America’s Next Top Model (CW)

1) Hawaii Five-O, 2) Grimm, 3) Shark Tank, 4) Raising Hope/Enlisted, 5) ANTM

10PM: 20/20 (ABC), Blue Bloods (CBS), Dracula (NBC)

1) Dracula, 2) Blue Bloods, 3) 20/20

Rectify

This is just a quick review of a show I checked out recently, Rectify. It’s the first effort at a scripted series from The Sundance Channel (which is owned by AMC). Rectify stars Aden Young as Daniel Holden, a man recently released from prison after 19 years on death row, after DNA testing exonerates him. His sister Amantha (Abigail Spener) was always a strong supporter of her brother’s innocence. His mom Janet (J. Smith-Cameron) is glad to have her son back. Since then, she’s married Ted Sr. (Bruce McKinnon), and inherited his son Ted Jr. (Clayne Crawford) and his wife Tawney (Adelaide Clemens). Also in the cast are Luke Kirby and Michael O’Neill.

Aden Young is a revelation as a man struggling to connect with a world completely unfamiliar to him, and a family he barely feels a part of. His slow pondering movements are a nice break from the talky shows on other networks. There isn’t a ton of dialogue in here, or even action. It’s a slow burn drama. The mystery is still out there of who actually committed the initial murder, and there’s evidence still to suggest that Daniel might still be a suspect. I’m excited to see how the season unfolds.

GRADE: B+