This years race is certainly shaping up. We likely have seen at least 1 Best Picture nominee already, probably three or four. if the strike continues, that list will only grow. Already, there is a rumor mill around Dune part 2 shifting to 2024. Not being able to take the stars to Comic Con hurt, as Dune isn’t really a festival film. But even the festival films are struggling, with films possibly lacking their stars to promote their films. Challengers did have the major opening spot at one of the major festivals, but without Zendaya, they decided to not debut the film. And that likely will not be the only casualty. These festivals will serve less as Oscar bellweathers and more like film markets, with movies still seeking distribution able to promote. It’s a very different year, not to mention we might all be living in a Barbie world.

The following list does NOT rank in most likely to win, but rather just to be nominated.

1) Past Lives

I have mixed feelings about this being on top. it does have the marketing force of A24, which is turning into having the heyday backing of Miramax. A24 has proven themselves adept at keeping multiple films in contention for awards season, and this Sundance hit has the added benefit of already being released. Sadly, the approximately 10M it has made is nowhere near Everything Everywhere All At once numbers, and the first time director and cast of no-names would normally make this not the top pick. however, all things considered, we don’t know what is going to shift, and which films yet to debut aren’t even good. Past Lives is proven, a critical darling, and has a small but very passionate fan base that likely will not stop talking about this movie.

2) Killers of The Flower Moon

Despite needing its stars to promote, I am predicting this stays no matter how long the strike goes. That’s because Martin Scorsese can promote the film, and he is one of a handful of directors big enough to carry this film on his shoulders if need be. With an October release slated, its possible the strike could be over by then. And, it already had a flashy debut at Caanes, where the critics fell in love. I also consider this a frontrunner in too many categories to not rank it high here.

3) Oppenheimer

Well, the buzz seems solid. Universal might likely make this their top priority, and after doing well at the box office this weekend, and with critics, this could be Christopher Nolan’s third best picture nominee. The bigger question is whether or not any of the lauded performances can be nominated, because nolan is a bit like Wes Anderson in his inability to really get actors nominations. He’s only ever managed one, a posthumous nomination and win for Heath ledger. He’s also only ever been nominated once for director, despite being largely considered one of the best of all time. There is some disconnect between voters and his movies, but that likely will be more of a problem for him either in the director race, or possibly for his actors, especially supporting performances. Cillian Murphy may have that new car smell of never having been nominated, but Robert Downey jr certainly does not. He’s a multiple nominee.

4) The Color Purple

Currently slated for a Christmas release, the trailers are already out. And, the film sells itself, not the cast. As talented as they are, Taraji P Henson is the most well known, and she’s not Leonardo DiCaprio or something. And, she’s in the supporting race. if Fantasia can’t be made available to promote the film, as soon as the soundtrack drops and she’s singing I’m Here, this film gets in the race. It’s a known property, with a book, a film, a musical, and a revival. SAG could stay on strike, and it won’t affect this movie one bit. For actors not known for their singing, like Coleman Domingo, it might be more of a problem, but even with him I think he’s solid.

5) The Holdovers

Surprised i still have this so high? It has a lot to do with the fact that the studio chose to drop the trailer during the strike, which gives me confidence in this not going anywhere. it also has a late October release, which i believe is set to platform pushing this wide closer to Thanksgiving. Alexander Payne isn’t a stranger to the Oscar conversation, though putting him front and center would be a mistake. I’m betting on the fact that this was seen at a festival last year, and was bought for 25M. That’s a lot for a Paul Giamatti film if you don’t have faith in it going the distance, especially in this day when big films seem to get butts in seats, but little dramas like Are you There God, it’s Me Margaret can’t.

6) Anatomy Of A Fall

There’s always an international nominee. The past couple years, the expansion of who is voting has led to an international nominee in the top 10 on a pretty regular basis. This has a lot of attention coming out of Caanes, and because it is international, there’s a chance that Sandra Hueller isn’t SAG, and is available to promote. Of the two most obvious international contenders so far, this is the most accessible.

7) May/December

Say what you want about this film supposedly being weird, it’s been seen. Netflix snapped this up, and while no one has seen the rest of their major Oscar contenders, they’re kinda stuck with this one for sure. It would make more sense to push maestro, Nyad, or the recently wrapped The piano Lesson, than a film that currently already has Oscar buzz, and proven critical acclaim. That would make no sense to me. Even if they slate it for December, which i feel like if not is a missed opportunity since the month is in the title, the actors strike could be over by then.

8) Dune: Part 2

This one is dropping down my list. I’m worried that WB, who already have Barbie and The color Purple in this years race may shift the expensive Dune, which is supposed to hit at the beginning of November. before the strike, this would have been top 5 for me, but things are certainly in flux. Also, it’s so weird to see the studio worried about the stars not being able to promote, since it is a sequel, and the property is larger than either Chalamet or Zendaya. And, this is incredibly unlikely to get any acting nominations. But, cash is king, and if Warner is scared after the year they’re having with non-Barbie fare, I get that.

9) Zone of Interest

it’s unlikely both this and anatomy Of A Fall will make the Best Picture race, unless so many films get pulled due to the strike. Again, if these actors aren’t SAG members, they could be free to promote their film. It already has hype from Caanes, and Jonathan Glazer is close to being a Top 5 choice for Director. It’s supposedly not very accessible, and a little dreary on the subject matter,and i am inclined to say that I’ll end up moving this down the list as the season progresses.

10) Barbie

It’s pretty hard to fully ignore that opening. If this film has legs, and if others drop, this comedy might surprise. I think right now this has a better shot than Air or Across The Spider-Verse, because this does have Oscar talent involved, and is likely to be a frontrunner in some craft categories. If the actors strike ends soon, and no films push, Barbie will fall out of my Top 10 though.

Films I Still Have My Eyes On:

11) Air

Right now, it has to be Amazon’s top priority, but my gut tells me this is not a film that survives a spring release all the way to nominations in January. but, since it has premiered, and has good reviews, I’m putting it higher than normal.

12) Across The Spiderverse

Basically, take the same things i said about Air, except this is animated, and the last best Picture nominee that was animated was Toy Story 3. In fact, only three films have ever been nominated. Will this really beat those odds, when Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio couldn’t?

13) The Boy And The Heron

Take what I said above, and then realize that this is an animated film that is directed by Hayao Miyazaki, and it’s pretty much teflon for a SAG strike, unless they are worried about having top dubbed voice talent in English. in Japan, the posters ran on just the Miyazaki name and the title. That’s it.

14) Rustin

While i haven’t heard great things, Rustin already moved out of one Awards year. moving it again would kill the film. Of the Netflix films that they didn’t buy at a festival, Rustin has the best shot at keeping its release no mattr what.

15) Next Goal Wins

It’s worth mentioning that this does have still an opening slot at one of the fall festivals, and is backed by a previously Oscar nominated director (though it was for writing jojo Rabbit), and stars michael Fassbender. it’s going for the same crowd pleasing feeling that that The holdovers wants.

Other titles I’m very optimistic about should the studios decide they don’t need to own a background actors likeness in perpetuity:

Poor Things, Napoleon, Nyad, A ong Days Journey into night, Maestro, Challengers, Dumb money, A Little Prayer, The bike Riders, The Killer, , and The Boys in The Boat. Among many others.