As everyone continues to discuss how the strike will effect the Oscar season, we have already gotten some answers. there have been some Oscar contenders that have already opened, and schedules for the Toronto and Venice film festivals have been announced in full, not to mention that Caanes already put some titles on the table, as did South by Southwest and Sundance. but, all is not perfect. Challengers, the newest Luca Guadanino film moved to 2024, and there are rumors that a push for Dune Part 2 is imminent. Already, Sony had to make changes, pushing titles back as a result, knocking the next Ghostbusters title from December to next year. With all that in mind, here are the Top 20 names in this years race, ranked in order from most likely currently to get a nomination.

1) Fantasia Barrino (The Color purple)

Most people consider her a frontrunner, and with her film opening on Christmas, it’ll be something we have to wait and see. However, my argument when this film was discussed in my earlier Best Picture post, is that I believe this is strike-proof. Let’s be honest, the Ip is the reason audiences will show up, not names like Barrino, Danielle Brooks, or Coleman Domingo. There was a novel, which became a film nominated for 10 Oscars, which became a Tony award winning musical, which later spawned a revival that also won Tony awards. If the cast can’t promote, just releasing a video of Barrino singing I’m Here will get her an Oscar, much like it did fellow Season 3 American Idol alumni Jennifer Hudson. Anyone know what Latoya London is up to these days, because at this rate, an Oscar might be in her future as well.

2) Greta Lee (Past Lives)

A24 is likely going to campaign this already critical success. Normally, I wouldn’t have her this high, but the strike could cause some things to move. lee’s film already has been out, and critics already adore her. Even a film like anatomy Of a Fall, which blew up at Caanes, is still waiting release. of the performances we’ve seen so far this year, lee has the best shot, and if things start dropping, her place will only become more solid.

3) Sandra Hueller (Anatomy Of a Fall)

Neon snapped up the rights, and the assumption is that this will be France’s entry. If it’s not, Penelope Cruz did recently get an Oscar nod for a film that was an international title, but not that countries submission. Even RRR won Original Song last year, despite not being India’s submission. Hueller has the benefit of also being in the Zone of Interest, which is less likely to get her a nomination, but has also met critical acclaim.

4) Annette Bening (Nyad)

I’m pretty high on this film. This would be the first time I’ve named a Netflix film in this category, and this is from the team that directed Free Solo. It’s their feature debut, and I’m excited to see what they do. often, you’ll hear Oscar experts talk about narratives. Bening still has never won an Oscar. She’s one of those perennial bridesmaids, and that narrative could push her forward. That narrative got Jamie lee Curtis an Oscar. it’s real. Maybe this is finally her time. Netflix also has slated this film for a festival, and Netflix is less concerned with box office performance. They just need a qualifying run, so releasing this in the midst of a strike is a lot easier.

5) Jessica Lange (A Long Day’s Journey Into Night)

one of those cases, like Fences, where the stage production has essentially transferred to film. Lange got rave reviews on stage, so there’s no reason to believe she won’t here. I can’t imagine anyone is expecting this to light up the box office, but I also don’t believe I’ve seen a festival announcement. This could be bumped.

6) Natalie Portman (May December)

Basically, what I said about Bening is true here. It’s Netflix, so they aren’t thinking about box office returns. Plus, this already premiered at Caanes, so we know it’s a good performance. It’s not being called her best, but the Todd Haynes film is getting serious notice, and could be a contender, if the unseen Netflix titles don’t pan out. Two of them don’t have very good advance buzz. This already has a Metacritic score.

7) Emma Stone (poor Things)

I had her lower before, because this is also a weird performance, but the studio pushing this back to December has me believing they have faith in its Oscar chances. Yor gos has previously gotten his actors nominated, will he be able to repeat for Emma? Remember, Emma already has an Oscar, so rushing to give her a second is a bit of a stretch.

8) Margot Robbie (Barbie)

it’s not the most obvious Oscar contender, and her snub last year for Babylon is concerning. if she couldn’t be nominated for Babylon, will the box office success of Barbie change peoples minds? I think her success in this category has a lot to do with the strike. if suddenly films start pushing back like flies, at least her film has been released, and is credited with saving the summer box office. It is Warner Bros, which also has The color Purple, so I can’t imagine she’s top priority.

9) Helen Mirren (Golda)

It’s a biopic starring Helen mirren playing an Israeli Prime minister, so I can’t really ignore this until it’s been screened and people determine where it stands.

10) Ryan Destiny (Flint Strong)

There are still some breakout potentials. The Oscars love to discover people. i think Greta Lee is the likely choice, but if Flint Strong can take off, maybe Ryan can get in the race. I’ve heard good things, so we will see.

And ten more on my radar:

11) Carey mulligan (Maestro)

I think this film is going to be a Bradley Cooper thing. Mulligan was shut out last year for She Said, despite having a ton of screentime for Supporting Actress.

12) Vanessa Kirby (Napoleon)

Ridley Scott hasn’t had great luck at the Oscar’s recently, but the early word on napoleon wasn’t bad, but it also really had nothing to say about Kirby.

13) Kaley Spaney (Priscilla)

We always entertain the idea that one day, Sofia Coppola will manage to get another Lost In Translation, but a year after Elvis? I think she’ll likely be left out, though this is already confirmed for the festival circuit.

14) Regina King (Shirley)

Her film has terrible buzz, though she supposedly is good in it. Can she overcome her films buzz? I also haven’t seen this announced at either TIFF or Venice, so when will we see it?

15) Emily Blunt (Pain Hustlers)

One of the reasons blunt is rumored for Oppenheimer is that she’s never been nominated, which should give her an equal chance with this title.

16) Tiana Taylor ( A Thousand and One)

The Sundance winner already was released theatrically. She cannot sustain to a nomination, unless the strike scares so many films out of the race there’s nothing left.

17) Margaret Qualley (Drive Away Dolls)

This recently got a release date. During the strike. So, I would assume it is actually being released. Is it time for this Maid to get an Oscar nomination?

18) Nicole Kidman (holland MI)

I’m not counting Kidman out while she’s in this race. I know nothing about this film.

19) Anne hathaway (She came To Me)

hathaway is in Peter Dinklage’s new film. Maybe she’ll get another nomination.

20) Lily Gladstone (Killers Of The Flower moon)

Last year, around this time, Michelle Williams was the frontrunner for Supporting Actress. She stupidly switched to lead, where she managed a nomination, but remains an actress without an Oscar. If Gladstone chooses to swap like Williams, it won’t get her the trophy. She’ll lose, and it becomes questionable if she can even be nominated, as she’ll have less screentime than her competition.