This is the third in my series of why the hell are we talking about this before we see these movies, after having tackled the current race for Best Picture and Actress, it’s time to tackle Best Actor. As a reminder, these are not ranked to win, but who has the best chance at a nomination right now.

1) Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers Of The Flower Moon)

The early reviews for this have said this is one of Leo’s best of all time performances, and the Caanes reception was very strong. Also, with seemingly no end in sight for the strike, Killers is in an interesting position. Scorsese is one of a few directors big enough to draw to a film, and he can campaign. The film also hails from Apple, and while I believe the box office run is intended only to boost it’s Oscar chances, i really don’t think Apple is concerned with returns. So, if the cast isn’t ready to promote this in October, they will open it anyway, as this was the grand plan for the year. They wanted that Caanes spot, which is why it left 2023. Leo is pretty popular with the Academy, notching 7 nominations, and of course his win for The Revenant.

2) Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)

Working against Murphy is Nolan’s track record with the Oscar’s until now. Even though most consider him to be one of the masters of this current breed of contemporaries, he’s only ever been nominated for director once, and has never won. he’s also never had a Best Picture winner, and only 2 nominees. he’s only gotten 1 actor to a nomination and that was the posthumous win for Heath Ledger for The Dark knight. What is working in Murphy’s favor, is that even if the strike lasts for a year, this film is already a massive hit, with him at the center. He’s also never been nominated and has a fairly long career worth finally rewarding with a nomination.

3) Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)

Holdovers is scheduled to open in November, slowly expanding by Thanksgiving. Focus bought this last year, and since it is a Focus features release, I’m not sure there’s a huge money gamble on this. it’s a potential crowd pleaser, and since the film takes place over the holidays, a bump would mean another full year. it already was moved from the 2023 season. moving it again could kill any momentum it has. i think this stays in place, and Giamatti gets his second Oscar nomination, and first in a leading category.

4) Bradley Cooper (Maestro)

This film did suffer initially from poor testing, and Netflix paid for reshoots. now the word of mouth I’m hearing is that it is better, and actually more artistic in nature than Cooper’s directorial debut, A Star is Born. Cooper has never won an Oscar, 9 nominations, though not all of those are in acting. The benefit of being a multi-hyphenate. Let’s be honest. Netflix is giving this a qualifying run, and box office doesn’t matter. With an October bow planned, Maestro will drop and Netflix will hope the strike will end so Cooper can campaign (presuming he’s good in this). On the plus side, I think as a member of the DGA, he might be able to do press as a director, as long as he avoids talking about the acting.

5) David Straitharn (A Little prayer)

It’s a Sundance indie, and it landed with an art house distributor. They can’t be expecting much from the box office. I don’t think this film moves, and he could be the bill Nighy of the season, although he has been previously nominated.

6) Coleman Domingo (Rustin)

While I’ve heard some improving word of mouth on Maestro, Rustin still seems to be “Domingo is great, the movie is not.” The plus side is that, like Maestro, Netflix gives zero consideration to box office performance here. Rustin is coming, certainly it won’t push another Oscar season. but is it good enough to get Domingo a nomination? or, does he have a better shot for The Color purple?

7) Tao Yoo (Past Lives)

While much of the conversation has been around Greta Lee, there’s a remote possibility that Tao makes an appearance if past Lives has a good run with the nominations. The more films drop, the better his chances get.

8) Joaquin Phoenix (Napoleon)

Apple certainly isn’t moving this, but I also think Leo might be the priority. it’s hard to sell them both, and Phoenix may miss out. However, he was also good this year in Bo Is Afraid, and has four nominations, and is a winner! So, he is liked. But is that enough? Ridley Scott’s past couple films would suggest that it’s too much for Phoenix to overcome.

9) Matt Damon (Air)

I think this is unlikely, but the actor’s strike could be so disruptive that Air suddenly swings back into contention. Damon also is a past nominee, and will also have Oppenheimer under his belt this year.

10) Michael Fassbender (the Killer/Next Goal Wins)

If Next Goal Wins pushes, he will have a better shot. Fassbender is the undeniable lead in two films vying for Oscars this year, and if both open, we will have to see which one is his stronger performance. Netflix is running The Killer, while Next Goal Wins is hoping to draw eyes over Thanksgiving. It’s a tough call.

11) Adam Driver (Ferrari)

Driver is a dark horse for me. Ferrari was without distribution, then neon snapped it up, and it has some festival launches planned. Michael Mann directs, with penelope Cruz in the cast. If this opens, this could be a huge boost up the charts. It also worries me that a strike could push the film. Neon already has Anatomy of a Fall.

12) Barry keoghan (Saltburn)

I’m aware of this. but I take this semi-seriously. Saltburn should have named Toronto or Venice, and it didn’t. That’s not great news. Yes, Saltburn is currently dated, but I can see this pushing to 2024. Plus, two years in a row for Barry? He’s young, and even the super hot Timothee Chalamet couldn’t repeat a second year with Beautiful Boy.

13) Ed Harris (A Long Days journey into night)

Sure, Jessica Lange is the focus here, as she repeats her critically praised broadway run in film form, but Harris has four nominations so far. He’s getting up there in age, and there aren’t going to be too many more opportunities.

15) Kingsley Benedeer (Bob Marley: one Love)

I’m just really hesitant aftr last year’s Whitney biopic. Plus, it’s basically the last film to open in the season, and timing is so important (just ask Peter Dinklage). I might move him up, or he might always be a long shot for me.

16) Anthony Hopkins (Freud’s Last Session/One Life)

I never really fully count out Hopkins, though he does have a recent win. So, I’m not as concerned that he’s a frontrunner or something, but having two films? He might be amazing in both, and have a Fassbender problem. of course, both his films could get pushed.

17) Paul Dano (Dumb Money)

We will know after Toronto where he stands officially, but Dano has been a long time coming. Not only should he have been nominated already for The Fablemans, but you definitely can make a case that the Oscars owe him for his snub in There Will Be blood. Dumb Money is going to have to be fantastic though.

18) Adam Sandler (Spaceman)

After managing a SAG nomination last year for hustle, I am not putting Sandler out of this race unless Spaceman moves. This is a long shot, but there is a very odd movement to get him an Oscar nomination. Where were all of these people when Jim Carrey starred in The Truman Show, Man On The moon, and Eternal Sunshine? Carrey should have three Oscar nominations by now.

19) Callum Turner (The Boys In The Boat)

I do believe Amazon is releasing this George Clooney directed film, and what I said earlier about streamers having a different model helps with theatrical releases like this. of course, Turner needs the strike to end, so people can get to know him better, but Clooney did direct Good Night and Good Luck, so if this is as good as that, Turner might come in out of nowhere.

20) Peter Dinklage (She Came To me), Andrew Scott (Strangers), Gael Garcia Bernal (Cassandra)

Cheating, i know. I’m keeping an eye on Dinklage, because he’s overdue. He came close with Cyrano, but really missed out with The Station Agent years ago. I’ve heard good things about Bernal, who has been solid for so many years, and I believe Cassandra is an Amazon release. Then we have Andrew Scott, who is getting some attention, but will Strangers open this year?

Not Going To Happen (Sorry Gold Derby)

Jesse Garcia (Flaming Hot) and Timothee Chalamet (Dune part 2).

I really don’t know if they are tracking Flaming Hot just to fuck with us, or what. No way. I mean, Garcia was fine. But at no point was I thinking we needed to throw an Oscar at him. Also, Dune isn’t going to get Chalamet a nomination. Elijah Wood was never nominated for playing Frodo, and Chalamet has a better chance with Wonka (which I’m betting would get pushed if the strike is still going on in October).