What a ride this year has been. So many ups and downs. I remember refusing to put Barbie in my Top 10 until it was actually reviewed by someone, and then it became this phenomenon. Late entry festival films didn’t make huge impacts, except perhaps for American Fiction. Oscar hopefuls saw their chances diminish, and early favorites were totally given up on. Who is in? Who is out?

BEST PICTURE:

One of the rare years I think we would hit 10 even if they hadn’t hit that requirement. Sure, one film feels like it’s in the lead, but if you check out all the lists, many films are topping them, and winning awards from various organizations. This may seem like Oppenheimer’s to lose, but the campaign has produced several other strong candidates. The Producers Guild did pick what I thought was the Oscar 10, which concerns me, because they have never gone 10/10. Last year, they gave hope to The Whale and Black Panther Wakanda Forever, and predictably ignored foreign entry All Quiet On The Western Front. This year, they embraced the American, and half-Korean Past Lives, along with France’s Anatomy Of A fall, and the UK’s German language The Zone Of Interest. Because of that, I looked to the logical, which the Oscars never are. I asked myself, in the ranked choice voting that the Oscar’s do, which film is most likely not to be getting #1 votes,. Also, which film bubbling under might be getting #1 votes? And of those that could be, how many of those are not divisive enough to be left off the list entirely? My 10th pick is a swing, and my snub is also, but I’m not predicting the PGA makes history in such a strong year for film. Some films peak at just the right time.

1) Oppenheimer

2) Barbie

3) The Holdovers

4) Killers Of The Flower Moon

5) Poor Things

6) American Fiction

7) Past Lives

8) Anatomy Of A Fall

9) The Zone Of Interest

10) All Of Us Strangers

The Upset: I think more people are likely to have Maestro down the list than at the top. i was between two British films for the 10th spot, and I think Saltburn also has a chance here. I think Maestro gets snubbed in favor of one of the surprises. Also possible, SAG nominee The Color Purple, but I found myself like Maestro wondering if anyone actually had that in first except the people in the actual movies. Origin’s last minute push is too little too late, I’m afraid.

BEST DIRECTOR:

In a year where women dominated, it’s scary to think none of them could be nominated. somehow, it feels like old Hollywood might snub all the women who brought us Barbie, Past Lives, Anatomy Of A Fall, Saltburn, Origin, Priscilla, Are You There God It’s Me Margaret, and many other terrific films. The BAFTA awards had no problem ditching Scorsese, who we seem to think is an Oscar darling, but didn’t actually win until 2006’s The Departed. Might Yorgos be in danger? I’m still not sure how his film is British, as he is not, and neither is his cast, but as the lone film in both British Film and picture, his snub is quite noticeable. This category could go anywhere. Last year, the DGA did get four correct, so I’ve gone with the same formula here as well.

1) Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

2) Greta Gerwig, Barbie

3) Yorgos Lanthrimos, Poor Things

4) Alexander Payne, The Holdovers

5) Bradley cooper, Maestro

You know who did get a BAFTA nom? Cooper. you know who has a Globe nom? Cooper. While his film may not top anyone’s list, there has been quite a push for him as a director, with even Scorsese campaigning for him. I think since he was notably shunned by the branch for A Star Is born, there’s more of a campaign to get him in this year. I understand the need to have an international director, but I think Yorgos qualifies as that, and anyone who tells me that the UK’s Jonathan Glazer is an “international” pick more than Yorgos can fight me in the street. Let’s go. If they go international, it will be truly international, and possibly be Justine Treat for Anatomy of A Fall or maybe even a surprise JA Bayona for Society of The Snow. I’m not sure Scorsese can keep his spot with such competition. Also, I have not written off Selene Song or Court Jefferson, but directorial debuts are hard in a normal year, and this year is even tighter. I kept Payne, who has been previously nominated, because it’s a good sign that he has DGA and BAFTA (which is a voting body that has never nominated him before).

ACTRESS:

For a category that seemingly just threw in Ana de Armas and Andrea Riseborough at the last minute, anything could happen. One thing to remember is that those two campaigns still had a narrative, that neither actress had ever been nominated. So for origin’s late entry, the now hyphenate Ellis-Taylor, she did just get a nomination for King Richard. I do have a very notable snub here, which is likely to bite me in the ass.

1) Lily Gladstone, Killers Of The Flower Moon

2) Emma Stone, poor Things

3) Sandra Hueller, Anatomy Of A Fall

4) Margot Robbie, Barbie

5) Fantasia Barrino, the Color Purple

I was shocked the BAFTA nominations went for Barrino. Remember, they picked Barrino over Gladstone. While Mulligan might get in for Maestro, she also seemed like the weakest. The winner debate seems between Gladstone and Stone, so Mulligan would just be racking up another nomination? that didn’t work last year for She Said, and she might get bumped here. BAFTA also recognized Robbie, even though they snubbed the film in Picture and Director. It didn’t feel like a BAFTA film, which may indicate far more support for Robbie than we thought. Two names worth mentioning still are Annette Bening, who should have managed a BAFTA and didn’t, and also Greta Lee, who sadly lost out even though Tao Yoo made it. Either could surge here.

ACTOR

This seemed like a locked five for months, then American Fiction happened. Then, All Of Us Strangers turned out to be good, Saltburn caught on, people remembered Past Lives had a male lead, and the race is slightly more interesting. The SAG five is a safe five. I will Tully acknowledge that.

1) Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

2) Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

3) Bradley Cooper, Maestro

4) Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

5) Andrew Scott, All Of Us Strangers

DiCaprio missed SAG and BAFTA, and really isn’t winning anything. Domingo managed BAFTA and SAG, but SAG went 12/20 last year, so it was always my intention to figure out the weak link. I think Rustin doesn’t have enough of a campaign. I’m barely a qualifying voter, and even I got a mailer for American Fiction. Jeffrey Wright has been around forever, and I don’t know what Netflix is doing with Rustin, but I’m not sure it’s enough. While I fully acknowledge the surprise could also be Tao yoo or Barry Keoghan, I went with Scott. Still. Even after his bizarre BAFTA snub.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

The closest to sure thing for a winner is in this race. As soon as lily Gladstone declared for lead, Da’Vine Joy Randolph has won almost every single Supporting Actress award there is. That’s made it hard to figure out the other 4 spots, because she has no real competition. She just has people who make lists, but don’t win. There are probably nine names possible for the other four spots.

1) Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

2) Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

3) Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

4) America Ferrera, Barbie

5) Rosamund Pike, Saltburn

I have to remember to keep a clear head and not be guided by personal feelings. In my opinion, Blunt, Ferrera, and Pike would not be the three I would pick. Blunt and Ferrera are basically here for a great speech, and Pike is just reading a great script. The other five contenders I’ve left out are Julianne Moore (May/December), whose film may not be as hot as it once was, Penelope Crus (Ferrari), who I was thinking would have skipped SAG to maybe be a surprise, Jodie Foster (Nyad), whose film I think is getting totally shut out, Sandra Hueller (The Zone Of Interest), who isn’t likely to get two nominations, and Rachel McAdams (Are You There God, It’s Me Margaret), whose film is also likely to be shut out. Remember when people thought Air was a thing? Those days are sadly long gone. Amazon/MGM has legit contenders in American Fiction and Saltburn, and they are taking up the space.

SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Another race that started to get interesting as people started missing. once again, I’m leaving personal feelings out. This would not be my five, and I don’t even think all five are getting in.

1) Robert Downey Jr (Oppenheimer)

2) Ryan Gosling (Barbie)

3) Robert DeNiro (Killers Of The Flower Moon)

4) Charles Melton, May December

5) Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers

I actually don’t think both young men are getting in, but I also don’t think both Poor Things actors are getting in. The film hasn’t performed well enough to lead me to believe that. So, instead of rolling both Ruffalo and Defoe, I’m rolling both boys thinking at least one will be correct. Outside chance still exists for Sterling K Brown, and a really outside chance for Glen Howerton for BlackBerry if my ritual sacrifice goes well. Seriously, everyone really wants Howerton, and it’s sad that he can’t get in.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Oscars are the only voting body to be considering Barbie in Adapted. Their reasoning is incredibly thin, and by their logic, Air is adapted because it is based on a real company and a real shoe, Maestro is an adaptation because its based on a real person, as is Rustin. We are going to have to truly redefine Original now. But, no, that rule only applies to Barbie.

1) The Holdovers

2) Anatomy Of A Fall

3) Past Lives

4) May/December

5) Saltburn

Did you know that Bradley Cooper could actually get four nominations this year? That’s insane. I’m already predicting him for two. Even if I’m wrong about director, if he got Picture, Actor, and Screenplay, that’s another 3 on his list of “I’ve never won.” I’m pretty sure Maestro is the only possible upset here, but I will mention Air as a potential lone nomination.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAy

If you are mad at my picks, just remember that the Oscars did this, not me. They moved Barbie, which knocked someone out. And, I do believe someone s getting recognized here.

1) Oppenheimer

2) Poor Things

3) Barbie

4) All Of Us Strangers

5) American Fiction

I think Barbie knocked out someone. Hague really did turn All Of Us Strangers into a true adaptation, and I think he’s going to get recognized for it, as Will Court Jefferson for American Fiction. honestly, if something misses so Killers or The Zone Of Interest can get in, it might be Barbie, from a total confusion of what the fuck is happening here. Their own guild has labeled it original, so writers are used to seeing it in one column. In a tight race, maybe that matters?

ANIMATED FEATURE

I feel really good about two. Total locks. My third choice I feel pretty solid on, and the last two are guesses.

1) Spider-Man Across The Spider-Verse

2) The Boy and the Heron

3) Elemental

4) Teenage Mutant Ninja turtles

5) Suzume

Even though it was ignored by the Annies, I think Elemental still has that Pixar shine. It’s even on the Score shortlist. Wouldn’t that be insane if it got a score nomination and not this? Other possible contenders, Chicken Run, The Super Mario Bros Movie, Wish, and The Peasants are all possible, but the most likely to jump in is Nimona.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:

Led by the reality that I frequently am disappointed by choices in this category, it’s entirely possible none of these get nominated. I hate this branch. I can’t figure them out, except Still feels like the kind of thing they never pick. They hate populist picks.

1) 20 Days In Mariupol

2) American Symphony

3) Bobby Wine: The People’s President

4) Going To Mars

5) Beyond Utopia

I loved Stamped From The Beginning, which is probably not a good sign. My favorite doc of 2023 wasn’t even shortlisted, like last year with Good Night Oppi.

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE:

The first one is basically already nominated. Then there’s four more.

1) The Zone Of Interest (United Kingdom)

2) Society Of The Snow (Spain)

3) 20 Days In Mariupol (Ukraine)

4) Falling Leaves (Finland)

5) The Teachers Lounge (Germany)

Also totally possible, Totem (Mexico), The Taste Of Things (France), and perfect Days (Japan). Maybe even Four Daughters.

SONGS:

I really didn’t even have a potential snub here. I literally don’t know what the next pick would be. This years crop of songs is so unremarkable.

1) Barbie- What Was I Made For

2) Barbie- I’m Just Ken

3) Rustin- Road to Freedom

4) American Symphony

5) Diane Warren Singing About Cheetos

*SHOULD* be nominated: Peaches, from The Super Mario Bros movie.

SCORE:

1) Oppenheimer

2) Poor Things

3) Killers Of The Flower Moon

4) Spider-Man Across The Spider-Verse

5) Saltburn

Basically, that 5th place spot is my wildcard. I’m hoping these voters don’t get in their ways and just give it to Indy or Elemental just because. I’d much rather the snub go to something daring like THe Boy and the Heron or The Zone Of Interest if I were to mis one.

I’m a blind film critic, and while I have thoughts on cinematography, Costume design, Production Design, etc., I also recognize that I’m at that point regurgitating what other people have seen. Those are the categories I feel like commenting on, and we shall see how I do come Tuesday.