The 98th Oscars is almost upon us. Below is a rundown of each category, and my pick, as well as who I would vote for if I was an Oscar voter. I do have some swings, or maybe not? I tried not to look at too many final predictions outside of the shorts categories, where I admittedly have not seen every nominee.

Best Live Action Short- Some fun nominees here, with Two People Exchanging Saliva being a stand out in name alone. The Singers is backed by the powerhouse that is Netflix, but honestly, it is just OK. It’s fine. Personally, Jane Austen’s Period Drama is the perfect kind of silly, but my money is on the heartwarming Friend Of Dorothy.

My Vote: Jane Austen’s Period Drama

My Prediction: Friend Of Dorothy

Best Animated Short: I haven’t seen a single one. Hearing them described to me, The retirement Plan has my heart, but apparently the animation style of Butterfly has all the prognosticators agog.

My vote: Abstain.

My Prediction: Butterfly

Documentary Short: While I haven’t seen all, there are three nominees here with audio description, the most of the short categories. While HBO came in clutch with The Devil Is Busy (from the director of The Perfect Neighbor) and Armed With A Camera, my prediction is the clear favorite, All The Empty Rooms, which as a school shooting centric doc backed by Netflix, pulls at your heartstrings.

My Vote and prediction: All The Empty Rooms

Visual Effects: If you’re judging just the effects themselves, it is really hard to not make the case for avatar out of the gate, as the film is so FX heavy. There’s so much here the film is practically animated. I don’t see how Avatar loses, since even anti-Avatar fans don’t have a clear runner up.

My vote and prediction: Avatar: Fire and Ash

Sound: The fact that Warfare wasn’t even shortlisted infuriates me. Sinners could overclock and win here, but my bet is the big budget Jerry Bruckheimer racing film nominated also in Best picture. Everyone can vote in all categories, so they are no longer limited to their branch, and with F1 getting that Picture nomination, I think its profile is high enough to win an Oscar.

My Vote and prediction: F1

Original Song: It has only ever been one film, and with only one option from that film here, this one is a sure thing.

My Vote And Prediction: Golden from K-Pop Demon Hunters

Original Score: five excellent scores, but Sinners is the one actually about music. i know people want to see Johnny Greenwood get an Oscar, but it just feels like an easy win for Sinners.

My vote: Bugonia

My Prediction: Sinners

Best Makeup and hairstyling: Two international nominees seem lucky to be here, without any audio description. The Smashing Machine is a lame duck without an accompanying campaign for Dwayne Johnson, so it goes to Sinners or Frankenstein.

My Vote: Frankenstein

My Prediction: Sinners

Costume Design: Another category that feels like a standoff between Frankenstein and Sinners. I suppose another film could surprise, but I’m thinking everyone has Sinners on the brain.

My Vote and Prediction: Sinners

Production Design: Del toro feels like a production design master, and I’m not taking a risk in this category.

My vote and prediction: Frankenstein.

Editing: I’d rather have Marty Supreme win, as the pacing there is extraordinary, or even F1, but I think this one goes to the rolling hills of one battle After Another.

My vote: Marty Supreme

My Prediction: One Battle After Another

Best Cinematography: Train Dreams would be so lovely to win here, but I’m a realist. I think Paul Thomas Anderson’s sweeping One Battle is taking this.

My vote: Train Dreams

My Prediction: One Battle After Another

Best Documentary Feature: While I assume Mr Nobody Vs Putin has caught more attention, it doesn’t have AD, and my gut tells me everyone and their mother has seen The Perfect Neighbor. Netflix’s juggernaut might be a surprise loser, as this is a feat of editing, and no actual footage was shot, but it also has done well in campaigning and making sure everyone has seen and is talking about it.

My vote And Prediction: The Perfect Neighbor

International Feature: Who cares. With not a single accessible title, my instinct is to say the nine nominations, including Best Picture puts Sentimental Value on the map. My vote? Fuck Neon. They have enough money to pay for audio description, and more than enough time. Sentimental Value is the most obvious selection as Elle Fannings entire performance is in English, and Stellan Skarsgard is highly recognizable to American audiences.

My Vote: The Voice Of Hind Rajab

My Prediction: Sentimental Value

Animated Feature: To be fair, my vote is different, but there’s only one logical winner.

My vote: Zootopia 2

My Prediction: K-Pop Demon Hunters

Best Casting: The new category looks to be highly leaning the way of Sinners. it is the movie of the moment, and for people who interpret this as best Ensemble, that won’t hurt its chances. I’d vote for Marty Supreme for some truly inspired casting choices.

My Vote: Marty Supreme

My Prediction: Sinners

Adapted Screenplay: Paul Thomas Anderson is winning an Oscar. Probably two. he’s far and away ahead in this race, and this prediction aligns with the WGA.

My vote And Prediction: One Battle After Another

Original Screenplay: If everything goes according to plan, no matter who wins director, two of them will already be Oscar Winners.

My Vote and Prediction: Sinners

Supporting Actress: I’d put the sentimental value actresses at the bottom, having been unable to secure a major win anywhere. I think it is between Madigan and Taylor, and there’s something truly iconic about Amy Madigan’s first nomination being 40 years ago for a film called Twice In A Lifetime, and here she is with her second nomination. Perhaps, twice is also the charm?

My vote and prediction: Amy Madigan (Weapons)

Supporting Actor: He’s been my #1 since the beginning, and even though his film has no AD, and he lost the BAFTA and SAG, I just do not see Oscar voters handing Sean Penn, who refuses to campaign,a third Oscar, for a divisive film and performance. I refuse.

My Vote: Delroy Lindo (Sinners)

My Prediction: Stellan Skarsgard (Sentimental Value)

Best Actress: This category is done and over. Barring some weird surge for Rose Byrne, this is all about Jessie Buckley.

My vote: Rose Byrne (If I HAd Legs I’d Kick You)

Winner: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)

Best Actor: Oh shit. The shitstorm category. I’ll say I’m going somewhat bold here, and I’m not predicting Timothee Chalamet. I think it is between Wagner Mora and Michael B Jordan.

My Vote:Ethan Hawke (Blue moon)

My Prediction: Michael B Jordan (Sinners)

Director: It is either PTA or Ryan Coogler. The other three don’t even need to bother with speeches. I do believe PTA will be awarded this, even if his film is not. I think the narrative is stronger, but either way, both win Oscars tonight from the Screenplay category.

My vote: Ryan Coogler (Sinners)

My Prediction: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)

Picture: I think the preferential ballot will help one film strong enough to win. One film is likely to range the spectrum, the other is probably in everyone’s top five. However, interestingly, my vote is in the weeds.

My Vote: bugonia

My Prediction: Sinners