Thanksgiving Box Office Predictions: How Big Will ‘Moana’ Get?

With Moana opening tonight at 7PM, Fantastic Beasts is already looking to lose its #1 perch. Moana currently has a 100% on Rotten Tomatoes, which will cause a huge boost of confidence in ticket buying over the 5 day weekend. The Disney flick is set to topple the Harry Potter spinoff, but both films will be taking in huge numbers over the holiday weekend. Where does that leave the other new entries?

Both Allied and Rules Don’t Apply are “Oscar Bait” films that are getting mixed reviews. Allied will fare better because of Brad Pitt, and Rules Don’t Apply is likely to fizzle a bit this weekend. The bigger question mark is Bad Santa 2, which is a sequel to a film that didn’t perform that well at the box office (60M Domestic) but became a hit on video long after. Will people turn up for a sequel to a 13 year old film? Especially a poorly reviewed sequel? I’ve seen predictions as high as 15M for Bad Santa 2, but my gut tells me that after Zoolander 2 and Bridget Jones’s Baby, that Bad Santa 2 is going to disappoint. Maybe 10M over the weekend. Remember, the tracking was solid on Bridget and it still flopped. The tracking could be misleading here as well, especially given the reviews.

On Friday, Lion opens in limited release, testing the waters for its Oscar potential. It enters a crowded limited marketplace, which is already trying to support Manchester By The Sea, Moonlight, and Loving, all buzzy Oscar films. Lion should still find its place.

1) Moana- 80M 5 Day Weekend, 80M Total
2) Fantastic Beasts- 70M 5 Day Weekend, 160M Total
3) Allied- 22M 5 Day Weekend, 22M Total
4) Doctor Strange- 14M 5 Day Weekend, 199M Total
5) Trolls- 14M 5 Day Weekend, 134M Total
6) Bad Santa 2- 10M 5 Day Weekend, 10M Total
7) Arrival- 9M 5 Day Weekend, 55M Total
8) Rules Don’t Apply- 7M 5 Day Weekend, 7M Total
9) Almost Christmas- 5M 5 Day Weekend, 32M Total
10) Hacksaw Ridge- 5M 5 Day Weekend, 49M Total

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