Best Film Drama: Manchester By The Sea
Possible Upset: Moonlight
Longshots: Hell Or High Water, Hacksaw Ridge
No Chance: Lion
Honestly, this is pretty much between Manchester and Moonlight. This is the hardest to predict for me, because I’m betting the two were VERY close in votes.
Drama Actor: Casey Affleck (Manchester By The Sea)
Possible Upset: Denzel Washington (Fences)
Longshots: Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
No Chance: Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic), Joel Edgerton (Loving)
This award has been Affleck’s to lose this entire time. Him not winning would be a huge shock.
Drama Actress: Amy Adams (Arrival)
Possible Upsets: Natalie Portman (Jackie), Isabelle Huppert (Elle)
Longshot: Ruth Negga (Loving)
No Chance: Jessica Chastain (Ms Sloane)
I think its a tight race between the top three. I wouldn’t be surprised if any of them won, but Adams has the bigger film. She also had Nocturnal Animals this year, and that could help push her over the top.
Best Musical/Comedy: La La Land
Possible Upset: Florence Foster Jenkins
No Chance: 20th Century Woman, Sing Street
Almost as certain as Affleck’s win. I would be more surprised if it didn’t win. This is a pretty surefire bet. Put all your chips on La La Land.
Comedy Actor: Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
Possible Upset: Ryan Reynolds (Deadpool), Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Longshot: Colin Farrell (The Lobster)
No Chance: Jonah Hill (War Dogs)
I think Gosling is gonna win, though he has a narrower edge than his co-star. I would be mildly surprised if Reynolds or Grant won instead.
Comedy Actress: Emma Stone (La La Land)
Possible Upset: Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins), Annette Bening (20th Century Woman)
Longshot: Hailee Steinfeld (Edge of Seventeen)
No Chance: Lily Collins (Rules Don’t Apply)
I’m pretty sure Stone has this in the bag. She’s a lock for an Oscar nomination, and the other women aren’t. That should help her with her edge.
Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
Possible Upset: Jeff Bridges (Hell Or High Water)
Longshot: Dev Patel (Lion)
No Chance: Simon Helberg (Florence Foster Jenkins), Aaron Taylor Johnson (Nocturnal Animals)
This is tough for me. I know the Globes like to reward big stars, and I could definitely see Bridges taking this tonight, which would tighten up the Oscar race a bit, and make Ali less of the forgone conclusion. This is one category I wouldn’t put my money on.
Supporting Actress: Viola Davis (Fences)
Possible Upset: Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures), Michelle Williams (Manchester By The Sea)
Longshot: Nicole Kidman (Lion)
No Chance: Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
This is Davis’ to lose. She’s as close to a lock as Affleck is.
Best Director: Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
Possible Upsets: Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge), Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
Longshot: Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester By The Sea)
No Chance: Tom Ford (Nocturnal Animals)
I could see Gibson winning, like a “welcome back” award. Jenkins might win, if Moonlight wins film. But my gut says Chazelle wins.
Best Screenplay: Manchester By The Sea
Possible Upsets: Moonlight, La La Land
Longshot: Nocturnal Animals, Hell Or High Water
There are no “No Chances” here. This is a close category.
Animated Feature: Zootopia
Possible Upsets: Moana, Kubo And The Two Strings
No Chance: My Life As A Zucchini
The fact that Zootopia is a serious contender for an actual Best Picture nomination, and possibly a Screenplay nomination, shows that it is on a different level. I think this is going to sweep.
Foreign Language: Elle
Possible Upset: Toni Erdmann
Longshot: The Salesman, Neruda
No Chance: Divines
This is really between Elle and Toni Erdmann. I’m betting that with Huppert’s nomination, Elle has the edge.
Best Score: La La Land
Possible Upset: Hidden Figures, Moonlight
Longshots: Lion, Arrival
The movie about music will win this category.
Best Original Song: How Far I’ll Go (Moana)
Possible Upsets: City Of Stars (La La Land), Can’t Stop This Feeling (Trolls)
Longshot: Faith (Sing)
No Chance: Gold (Gold)
Moana is goin to win. I think it’s the better song. Though, I wouldn’t be surprised if La La Land or Trolls snuck out a win here too.