Box Office Projections: ‘Leap’ Should Outpace The Other New Entries, But Can’t Hit #1

After being the #1 film last weekend, The Hitman’s Bodyguard is now likely to remain that for three consecutive weekends, until It is released. There’s nothing coming out his weekend that will threaten it. Honestly, the wide releases aren’t even that wide. Leap! is the widest of the newcomers with 2,000 screens. Birth Of The Dragon is only getting 1500, and All Saints is stuck at 800. I don’t have a screen count for Good Time, but based on where it’s releasing in my area, I’m guessing it’s not above 1,000.

Leap! did have special previews last weekend to help spread word of mouth, and the kids films in the market aren’t exactly strong competition. I do believe it will do the best of the newcomers, but still, 6M isn’t really anything to get excited about. These next two weekends are “catch up” weekends. The most exciting thing may be seeing films like Wind River doing well in the top 10. I’m betting Wind River has another expansion planned, and it will continue to make use of this slow market to attract audiences. I don’t think Good Time has nearly the hype that Wind River has, and won’t suffer the same benefit.

However, there are a few limited release movies that with expansions could start getting close to the top 10. Ingrid Goes West, for example, was 22nd last weekend in only 26 screens with a 10K per screen average. It could expand and make better use of these next two weekends.

If there’s something you missed over the summer, now is the time to catch up on those films. Next weekend, the only film scheduled for any kind of “wide” release is Tulip Fever, which is being called a “moderate” release, which is likely only 500-800 screens. It’s entirely possible that the coming Labor Day weekend will be the lowest grossing Labor Day weekend of all-time. If Hitman’s Bodyguard remains at #1, it will do so, likely with less than 6M at #1. The current record holder for lowest grossing #1 film is Jerry Maguire at 5.5M, and it is entirely possible that The Hitman’s Bodyguard could beat that record next weekend.

1) The Hitman’s Bodyguard- 10M Weekend, 39M Total
2) Annabelle Creation- 8M Weekend, 78M Total
3) Leap!- 6M Weekend, 6M Total
4) Birth Of The Dragon- 4M Weekend, 4M Total
5) Dunkirk- 4M Weekend, 173M Total
6) Logan Lucky- 3.5M Weekend, 14M Total
7) The Nut Job 2- 3M Weekend, 22M Total
8) Wind River- 3M Weekend, 9M Total
9) All Saints- 3M Weekend, 3M Total
10) Spider-Man Homecoming- 3M Weekend, 319M Total
11) The Emoji Movie- 2.5M Weekend, 76M Total
12) Girls Trip- 2.5M Weekend, 107M Total
13) The Dark Tower- 2M Weekend, 45M Total
14) Good Time- 2M Weekend, 2.5M Total

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