Box Office Predictions: Tom Cruise Will Struggle Again

So this weekend, we’ve got Tom Cruise’s American Made, which is getting good reviews, but isn’t his typical “franchise” fare. In fact, this film falls into that same genre that has seen A-listers fail miserably, with films like Blow (Johnny Depp) and Lord Of War (Nicolas Cage). This drug-running/gun-running sub genre isn’t really popular, as proven again by last year’s War Dogs. Cruise might get it to open in the mid-teens off his name, and the good reviews alone.

The other new entry, Flatliners, either has a really restrictive embargo, or it didn’t screen for critics. Considering it opens with late shows tonight, the fact that it has no score on Rotten Tomatoes is disconcerting. Flatliners had been getting decent buzz off its trailers, and also by having a fresh cast, but with It still taking a large bite out of the horror market, it’ll be tough for Flatliners to really break out if it doesn’t have the support of critics like It did.

There’s this other film… Til Death Do Us Part… which is opening from an obscure distributor, whose biggest name is Taye Diggs. I couldn’t find a screen count for this, so I guessed it would be opening in at least 1500 screens. In the world of expansions, Stronger, which cracked the top 10 last week, is adding a few more screens, and Battle Of The Sexes, starring Steve Carell and Emma Stone, is going wide this weekend into 1200 screens.

Next weekend, the super early tracking on Blade Runner 2049 has it opening at 40M, with My Little Pony in the 10-13M range, and The Mountain Between Us struggling with 7-10M.

1) Kingsman 2- 18M Weekend, 70M Total
2) It- 16M Weekend, 290M Total
3) American Made- 14M Weekend, 14M Total
4) Ninjago- 12M Weekend, 36M Total
5) Flatliners- 10M Weekend, 10M Total
6) Battle Of The Sexes- 6M Weekend, 6M Total
7) Til Death Do Us Part- 5M Weekend, 5M Total
8) American Assassin- 3.5M Weekend, 32M Total
9) Home Again- 2M Weekend, 25M Total
10) Stronger- 2M Weekend, 4M Total

One thought on “Box Office Predictions: Tom Cruise Will Struggle Again

  1. Til Death Do Us Part is only getting 550 screens according to Mojo, so I think it might get 1-2 million. Same for the other semi-big opener, A Question of Faith.

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