Already, i tackled the Picture, Actor, and actress races. now, onto Supporting Actor, way the hell before anyone really needs to. My power rankings are always based on who is most likely to be nominated, not necessarily win.

1) Robert DeNiro (killers Of The Flower moon)

If it wasn’t clear already, people love villains. DeNiro has been nominated 8 times, and has won twice. While he feels like the kind of legend that could earn a third win, it also feels like he’s likely to be a lock for a nomination, and remain a frontrunner, but ultimately lose out to someone else. Then again, his last win was for Raging Bull in 1981. I wasn’t even alive. He hasn’t won an Oscar within my lifetime, which seems insane to say. he did win two relatively successive Oscar’s, and then people just moved on. Will this be a cherry on top? I won’t rule it out, but he seems a lock for a nomination. Scorsese has no problem getting his actors nominated. Hell, he even got Mark Wahlberg a nomination.

6) Matt Damon (Oppenheimer)

The past couple of years, we’ve been getting a film that had doulbe nominees in the same category. The Power Of The Dog had two supporting actors, and EEAAO had two supporting actresses. Matt Damon has Air under his belt, but it’s possible that if the Oscars go all in on Nolan, Damon may surprise with the fifth spot.He has 5 nominations, and 1 win for screenplay. An oddly underrated and often overlooked actor.

7) Dominic Sessa (The holdovers)

Depending on just how good this movie is, or how good Dominic is, he could be the Lucas Hedges of the year. he has an uphill battle, and it did not happen last year for Gabriel LaBelle. Sometimes, with young actors, the assumption is that the best is yet to come. But if The Holdovers sweeps, he could be a surprise, just like Damon.

8) Ryan Gosling (Barbie)

I’m not quite as sold on Gosling being a lock right now. It’s a comedic performance, and there’s even some confusion as to whether or not he will even run in supporting. A lead campaign will kill his chances, but in Supporting, he will follow in the footsteps of many other supporting comedic breakouts who managed to either get a nomination or a win, like A Fish Called Wanda’s Kevin Kline, Joan Cusack in In And out, or Melissa McCarthy in Bridesmaids.He has two nominations, for Half Nelson and la La Land. he has never won.

9) Glenn Howerton (Blackberry)

The passionate little performance that could. Sometimes, what you need is a push, and a consistent one that gets you over the line. more than any film from the first half of the year, this performance is rising above the film itself, transcending like it could and should be the film’s lone nomination. IFC is not known for being a strong contender, and the movie is somewhat comedic. I think this is an interesting dark horse.

10/11) Willem Dafoe and mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)

Right now, until this film has been seen, I’m putting these two in a tie. There is no definitive answer as to who has the meatier performance just yet, and both men are Oscar past nominees. Willem has 4 nominations, and Mark has 3. It’s anyone’s guess right now.

12) Ben Affleck (Air)

I think this performance is barely holding on, and really only because of the SAG strike. If other films drop off, and Amazon really pushes Air, Affleck has never been recognized for his acting before. Time to tread new ground?

13) Samuel l Jackson (The Piano Lesson)

I don’t know why Netflix would rush this film and cram it at the end of the year. But I have to acknowledge, that Jackson, who has only 1 Oscar nomination in his entire career, is the kind of nominee that will shake up this race. he’s 13th, and i don’t think his movie is even opening. Netflix has enough product, with post-production happening, this would be a rush job. With films like Challengers, Drive Away Girls, and Flint Strong moving to 2024, this seems like a logical push.

14) Louis Gossett Jr (The Color Purple)

A legend. Last years nomination that put Judd Hirsch in over Paul Dano makes me realize all you need is that one great scene. If Gossett can manage that moment, it is unlikely he will ever have another chance. He is a literal trailblazer, as he was the first black actor to win in the Supporting Actor category for his only win and nomination, An Officer And A Gentleman. He hasn’t been nominated since. I’m staking a claim on this right now. If he has screentime, I’m moving him way the hell up.

15) Jesse Plemons (Killers Of The flower Moon)

Everyone who has already seen this says he doesn’t do much, but then again, he didn’t do much either in Power of The Dog. It still feels early for a second Oscar nomination, but maybe Killers sweeps.

16) Paul mescal (Strangers)

Again, it feels really soon for a second nomination. This film is also changing its title, I just am continuing to use what they have listed on Gold Derby.

17) Rhys Ifans (Nyad)

I had him higher when I first thought about this race. He’s never been nominated. I think Toronto could really show us if he has potential, but he has one hell of a career, and I can’t imagine people would ignore an Oscar push for him if it feels at all warranted.

18) Matthew Goode (Freud’s Last Session)

Remember how both actors from The Two Popes got in? If Hopkins elevates Goode, he’s never been nominated, which could turn things in his favor. I think he’s an interesting longshot.

19) Paul Dano (SpaceMan)

Only because he was snubbed last year. I don’t know about this, it’s Adam Sandler, and people keep trying to get him a nomination as well.

20) Someone from the cast of Dumb Money

An ensemble film about the GameStop scandal. It feels like something that might have a standout, but no one has seen it. Rather than list the entire cast, I’m just acknowledging breakout potential from this film.

2) Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)

I can’t in good conscience put him on top. He has a lot of buzzz right now, because his film just opened. He only has two Oscar nominations previously, which feels like he’s a lock at least for a third, if it wasn’t for the fact that nolan films are awful at getting acting nominations. in Christopher Nolan’s entire filmography, only one actor has ever been nominated (Heath Ledger, who also won that year). That’s an odd statistic, and a huge hurdle for Oppenheimer to overcome. Some think RDJ is overdue for a win. But, is this truly his best work, or an apology Oscar for all those other times?

3) Coleman Domingo (The color Purple)

in a very odd serendipitous moment, Domingo finds himself a serious contender in both Actor and Supporting Actor, and should the SAG strike end at any point during awards season so Domingo can campaign, he’ll get to be all over the place running campaigns for both Rustin and The Color Purple. Visibility is everything, and in a much tougher lead category in a film rumored to be very average, people might feel even more inclined to vote for him here after seeing him in two strong performances.

4) Charles Melton (May/December)

The fact that I’ve heard from some who already saw the film that he steals the show from Portman and moore, means he’s got a good chance. in fact, he could end up being the only acting nominee. Working against him is that “who the hell is this?” Factor, which he will have to overcome. He can’t do that with SAG on strike.

5) John Meggaro (Past Lives)

I think he’s in a good place, especially if films drop out because of the SAG strike. He’s also a bit on the lower end of known actors, and the film isn’t doing EEAAO numbers. This might be a Greta Lee only film, but I think Megarro seems more likely than Tao yoo in lead.