I am literally filling out my ballot at Gold Derby. The ceremony is tomorrow, so I can’t put it off anymore. As I go through category by category, you can read my thoughts on who will win.

Best Picture:

Will Win: Oppenheimer

Should Win: Honestly? 4 of these are in my personal Top 10, and 4 more are in my Top 25. I’m pretty happy with anything.

Might Win: The Holdovers?

I think when you look at history, our winners often look very different than the year before. Oppenheimer is very different from Everything Everywhere All At Once, which is different than Coda, and etc. we are overdue for a blockbuster winning this award, and Nolan’s juggernaut seems unstoppable. I think The Holdovers is in second, but I think there’s a huge gap between first and second here. This is done.

Best Director:

Who Will Win/Should Win: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Might Win: Martin Scorsese?

Nolan deserves an Oscar. He didn’t get one for The Dark Knight, so it must be this. He literally forced the Oscar’s to expand to 10. They are allergic to him though, as he has only ever been nominated once, for Dunkirk. So, even though this is his year, I think the people who don’t like him are voting elsewhere, there just isn’t a strong second place choice. i said Scorsese on name value alone. Plus, with 10 noms, and only 1 win, he seems overdue for a second Oscar more than the other 3 do for their first win.

Best Actor:

Will Win: Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)

Should Win: These 5 are my Top 5, so they all should win.

Might Win: Paul Giamatti

I have not completely counted out Paul Giamatti. I think this race is a lot closer. I imagine it looks something like Cillian with 25% of the vote, Giamatti with 23%, Cooper with 20%, Wright with 18%, and Domingo with 14%. It isn’t a runaway. We don’t have any young upstarts here. All five are well regarded working actors who have friends and connections. No Austin butler or Timothee Chalamet just getting started. Murphy has SAG and BAFTA, the two overlapping voting bodies. I have to go with him. I’ll be happy no matter who wins, since it would be a first trophy for anyone.

Best Actress:

Best Actress:

Will Win: lily Gladstone (Killers Of The Flower Moon)

Should Win: Emma Stone (Poor Things)

Might Win: Sandra Hueller (Anatomy Of A Fall)

The wildcard. The screen actors guild of America didn’t nominate Hueller, but we have totally awarded actresses before from non-English titles. it is how Marion Cotillard got her Oscar. However, I’m not fighting the SAG voters. i also think that Lily being the first indigenous actress to win will absolutely be a narrative that beats her competition. Stone does already have an Oscar… but Hueller doesn’t. And Anatomy Of A Fall did really well with Oscar voters considering it wasn’t submitted by France.

SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Should/Will Win: Robert Downey Jr (Oppenheimer)

Supporting Actress:

Should/Will Win: Da’Vine joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

When you are sweeping this hard, there is no competition. Randolph has something like 57 wins so far from various guilds, and one of Downey Jr’s strongest contenders, Charles Melton, wasn’t nominated. So, he looks like he’s been sweeping. No surprises to be had here.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

Will Win: American Fiction

Might Win: Barbie, Oppenheimer

In my video I predicted Barbie, because of a potential surge for Greta, but I can’t shake the feeling that American Fiction at the BAFTA, where it really wasn’t well received and still won, is a huge factor. I’m flipping last minute back to American Fiction.

Original Screenplay:

Will Win: Anatomy Of A Fall

Might Win: The Holdovers, Past Lives

A very strong category, and really tight. I think Anatomy might slide in the win here. It’s so hard to tell since the WGA awards are after the Oscars.

Cinematography:

Will Win: Oppenheimer

Editing:

Will Win: Oppenheimer

Look for Oppie to pick up some of its sweep momentum early on in some really obvious categories.

Best Costume Design:

Will Win: Barbie

Might Win: Poor Things

Production Design:

Will Win: Barbie

Might Win: poor Things

These two are really tight. I keep going back and forth. I think it is very likely Poor Things will win one, but the only way I’m sure is to go with the one contender for both that I think could win both more. Just in case. i think I will get one wrong, and Barbie will win one, and poor Things wins the other, but it’s so close.

Best Makeup:

Might Win: Oppenheimer

I’m taking my big swing here and linking the win for Best Actor and Supporting Actor to Makeup. If Cooper isn’t winning, or even Stone or Ruffalo, then would their makeup go along? or is it more likely that Oppenheimer surprises here?

Original Score:

Will Win: Oppenheimer

Might Win: poor Things

Original Song:

Will Win: What Was I made For (Barbie)

Might Win: I’m Just Ken (Barbie)

Pretty self explanatory.

Sound:

Will Win: Oppenheimer

Might Win: The Zone Of Interest

visual Effects:

Might Win: Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol 3

Could Win: Godzilla Minus One

Honestly, sound feels like it’s done, but visual Effects feels like a weak category. It might finally be time for everyone to recognize a Marvel film. If not, it’ll go to those who have been bringing the OG Godzilla all these years. The big question for me is, looking at the box office returns, did Godzilla’s campaign amount to enough to actually win? Just being nominated is kind of a huge deal. But, Guardians has the biggest box office of all the nominees. It certainly has been seen the most.

Animated Feature:

Will Win:: Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse

Might Win: The Boy And the Heron

Documentary Feature:

Will Win: 20 Days In Mariupol

international Feature:

Will Win: The Zone Of Interest

Might Win: Society Of The Snow

All three are pretty obvious, and I refuse to believe that the voters aren’t predicting the harrowing Ukraine war documentary to win. I think at least in the other two categories, there is a valid challenger, but I don’t think anything beats making a point about the war in Ukraine right now.

Animated Short:

My Guess: War Is Over

Documentary Short:

Will Win: The LAst Repair Shop

Could Win: The ABC’s Of Book Banning

Live Action Short:

Will Win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

I’m pretty confident Wes Anderson gets his Oscar. I think the Documentary short race is really tight, but I’m going with the LA based inspirational doc backed by Fox Searchlight that was co-produced by the LA Times. It feels very Hollywood. I have no idea with Animated Short, and war Is Over is favorited right now at Gold Derby. That’s the only reason. I’ve seen none of them, and heard nothing.