Box Office Predictions: ‘Frozen’ faces off against Oscar expansions

1) Lone Survivor- 18M weekend, 18M total

Mark Wahlberg is a bit more of a bankable lead actor. I’m making a bold prediction here, and it is based off of both Wahlberg’s status, as well as several “like minded films” like The Grey and Act Of Valor that have opened well. Plus, Lone Survivor is based off a book, and a true-story. A pretty great per screen of 42K last weekend showed that there is interest in this film.

2) August Osage County- 14M weekend, 14M total

27K per screen last weekend, plus lead actresses Julia Roberts and Meryl Streep should help propel August Osage County to a solid opening. Awards buzz is minimal now, but these two actresses shouldn’t be counted out. I don’t have a screen count for this, so I could be way off on my predictions. It is supposed to be going wide this weekend, so I’m just basing my guess off of a typical “wide” release.

3) Frozen- 13M weekend, 315M Total

4) The Wolf Of Wall Street- 10M weekend, 75M total

5) The Legend of Hercules- 10M weekend, 10M total

Kellan Lutz stars. I can’t imagine this film getting much traction, nor can I imagine tons of people wanting to spend more money to see it in 3D. Without a huge star, this film isn’t even getting a huge screen count. Still, January is a month where crappy movies can still do well (Daybreakers, Hansel and Gretel, Season of the Witch). Hell, Season Of The Witch managed 10M. I gotta say Hercules can match that.

6) The Hobbit- The Desolation of Smaug- 9M weekend, 239M total

7) American Hustle- 9M weekend, 99M total

8) Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones- 8M weekend, 30M total

9) Her- 6M weekend, 9M total

Her had a pretty solid per-screen average of 16,442 last weekend. With a nationwide expansion this week, I don’t think that per screen can hold up. It hasn’t officially gotten any Oscar noms yet, so the really quirky film about a guy who falls in love with his Siri-like computer program might not play to mass audiences. There are a lot of Oscar films in the mix right now. Her should do better if it gets a Best Pic nomination next week.

10) Anchorman 2- 6M weekend, 117M total

11) Saving Mr Banks- 5.5M weekend, 65M total

12) The Secret Life of Walter Mitty- 5M weekend, 53M total

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