Box Office Predictions: Will ‘Dumb’ Take First, Or Will ‘Hero’ Repeat?

1) Big Hero 6- 35M Weekend, 111M Total

Big Hero 6 received praise from moviegoers last week, and also faced tough competition from Interstellar. Dumb and Dumber To is not quite as big of a competitor, and animated films rarely dip more than 40% in their second weekend. Big Hero 6 will see a soft decline, and it should be enough to win the weekend.

2) Dumb and Dumber To- 30M Weekend, 30M Total

This weekend could be closer than I’m thinking, but 30M for a Jim Carrey movie is pretty amazing, and hasn’t happened since 2004’s Lemony Snicket. If he was still a massive bankable star, I would guess this film would go higher. Tracking is pretty solid, and the film does carry an accessible PG-13 rating. The competition is just really high, as both Big Hero 6 and Interstellar remain must-see’s with strong word of mouth.

3) Interstellar- 28M Weekend, 96M Total

Interstellar has held up really well mid week. It even passed Big Hero 6 on Monday and Wednesday. Even though not everyone loved Interstellar, I think there’s enough buzz to keep this from falling apart.

4) Beyond The Lights- 8M Weekend, 8M Total

A well reviewed drama targeted at a black audience. I think the film has been undermarketed, but Addicted did a lot better than I thought it would, so I’ll give Beyond The Lights some benefit of the doubt that its marketing reached the target demo. It’s tough to be a first choice this weekend, but a lot of people saw Interstellar and Big Hero 6 last weekend… and maybe those people also don’t want to see Dumb and Dumber To.

5) Saving Christmas- 5M Weekend, 5M Total

Christian films are almost impossible to predict, because so many of them go unnoticed and flop. But when one breaks out, they break out big. Kirk Cameron is the biggest “Christian” actor, and he’s been marketing this film like crazy (as well as offending some people in the process). My gut is that he’s done what he needed to do to ensure this is another Fireproof.

6) Birdman- 4.5M Weekend, 13.5M Total

Birdman is doubling its screen count this week, and with strong word of mouth, it should find some audience this weekend.

7) Gone Girl- 4M Weekend, 151M Total

8) Fury- 4M Weekend, 74M Total

9) St Vincent- 3.5M Weekend, 31.5M Total

10) Rosewater- 3M Weekend, 3M Total

Jon Stewart’s Rosewater opens in a little more than 300 screens, and should be buzzy enough to crack the top 10. Reviews have been strong, and Stewart has had his own show to market the show to his loyal audience. I think both Stewart fans, as well as those who notice reviews and Oscar buzz, will check out this film and help it crack the Top 10. Alternatively, it could be Ouija in this slot, but I’m pulling for Rosewater.

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