1) The Hobbit: Battle Of The Five Armies- 65M Weekend, 105M Total
Well, considering The Hobbit made 24M on Wednesday alone, I’d say we’re looking at a big weekend for the final Middle Earth movie. The last two made 84.6 and 73.6M, but both started on Friday. Those numbers will be a bit more spread out, and it might be the lowest opening weekend for the film, even though the five day period will look great. I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility that it crosses 100M on Sunday.
2) Night At The Museum 3- 30M Weekend, 30M Total
Museum is having to compete directly with Annie, and a bit also with Hobbit, so there’s only just so high this threequel is going to go. Still, the last one opened to 54M, so even if you predict less enthusiasm and tougher competition, it shouldn’t be going much lower than 30M.
3) Annie- 15M Weekend, 15M Total
Providing that everyone didn’t watch the film online, the heavily marketed (and Golden Globe nominated) Annie should do pretty well this weekend. Reviews haven’t been kind, but adults don’t always look to reviews for kids films. Plus, it’s a kids film aimed at girls, which we haven’t seen in a while.
4) Exodus- 10M Weekend, 41M Total
Exodus didn’t have a strong showing with audiences, and will suffer at least a 50% drop this weekend. It also has to directly contend with The Hobbit, as far as action audiences go. It will lose.
5) The Hunger Games: Mockingjay part 1- 7M Weekend, 288M Total
Katniss and Co close in on the 300M mark. Even with The Hobbit, this remains a must-see for anyone who hasn’t yet seen it, or for people who like seeing movies over and over.
6) Wild- 5M Weekend, 8M Total
Expanding into over 1,000 screens this weekend, Wild will bank heavily on Reese Witherspoon’s name, and the critical acclaim the film has gotten. It might get buried a bit this weekend, but this one is hoping for the long game.
7) Penguins Of Madagascar- 5M Weekend, 66M Total
8) Top Five- 4.5M Weekend, 13M Total
Chris Rock’s film still has strong word of mouth, and is unlikely to drop 50%, probably more like 35-40%.
9) Big Hero 6- 4M Weekend, 191M Total
Big Hero 6 is creeping toward 200M. Another 35% decline to 4M will keep its hopes alive.
10) Interstellar- 3.5M Weekend, 173M Total
11) Horrible Bosses 2- 2.5M Weekend, 48M Total
12) The Theory Of Everything- 2M Weekend, 20M Total