Box Office Predictions: Five News Films Look To Dethrone ‘Goosebumps’

After surprising and landing a #1 debut, Goosebumps now has to defend itself against a barrage of new films. FIVE new films are opening or going wide this weekend. Fortunately for Goosebumps, some of them aren’t tracking well.

Probably the top opener won’t even be a “new release”, technically. Steve Jobs has been doing really well in limited release, and is likely to continue to do well in wide release. Good reviews and strong buzz suggest this might be the film to dethrone Goosebumps this week. The other contender is The Last Witch Hunter, starring Vin Diesel, but I’m betting that this is more of a flop than hit. The PG-13 horror flick is suffering from a slew of poor reviews, and with so much other horror content in the marketplace right now, I can’t imagine anyone wanting to see a Van Helsing retread with Diesel.

The other major new opener, Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension, is being hampered by the decision of a few major chains not running the film due to a problem with a VOD launch coming much sooner than usual for Paranormal. A screen count of around 1500 will keep this sequel from reaching #1. It’s a shame, because tracking suggests it actually had a shot of a 20M opening, if it just had the screens.

Two other openers are not going to fare well. Rock The Kasbah isn’t tracking well, though will benefit a bit from a lack of competition (The Intern being really the only direct competition), and Jem and the Holograms, whose confusing trailers have left many wondering if the film can even open to something weak like 5M. When people can’t even be sure your film will make 5M on opening weekend, your marketing plan has failed you.

1) Steve Jobs- 18M Weekend, 20M Total
2) Goosebumps- 15M Weekend, 43M Total
3) The Martian- 14M Weekend, 163M Total
4) The Last Witch Hunter- 12M Weekend, 12M Total
5) Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension- 10M Weekend
6) Bridge Of Spies- 9M Weekend, 29M Total
7) Hotel Transylvania 2- 8M Weekend, 147M Total
8) Crimson Peak- 7M Weekend, 24M Total
9) Rock The Kasbah- 6M Weekend, 6M Total
10) Jem and the Holograms- 4M Weekend, 4M Total

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