Matt Damon’s return to the Jason Bourne role will easily take 1st this weekend. Like most of the sequels this summer, it won’t be able to match the series high opener of its last entry (Ultimatum made 69M in its first weekend), but should beat the rest of the series at least. The film is tracking well, and has been compared to Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation, which made 55M off the same tracking. I’m going with that as my projection.
Coming in second will be Bad Moms, which is looking to woo in women, much the same way that Trainwreck did. The tracking is also really good on this one, with projections going as high as 30M. I’m a little more nervous about this one, as there is no RT score to use for projections, but Bad Moms is in a genre where reviews don’t necessarily matter on opening weekend. It’s all about word of mouth, and if critics hate it, but audiences love it, it will do just fine.
The third wide opener is Nerve, which has done a nice job of promoting itself, but isn’t likely to be a threat this weekend. The Emma Roberts/Dave Franco pic is skewing young, in an attempt to counterprogram itself. 10M is probably as high as it could go. Also, Cafe Society is expanding this weekend, but I think it will just miss out on the top 10.
1) Jason Bourne- 55M Weekend, 55M Total
2) Bad Moms- 25M Weekend, 25M Total
3) Star Trek: Beyond- 20M Weekend, 103M Total
4) The Secret Life Of Pets- 18M Weekend, 299M Total
5) Lights Out- 14M Weekend, 45M Total
6) Ice Age: Collision Course- 13M Weekend, 43M Total
7) Ghostbusters- 12M Weekend, 107M Total
8) Nerve- 9M Weekend, 13M Total
9) Finding Dory- 4.5M Weekend, 409M Total
10) The Legend Of Tarzan- 3.5M Weekend, 123M Total