Box Office Predictions: ‘Squad’ To Lead ‘Sausage’ and ‘Dragon’

Suicide Squad is destined for a large dip. I think it could drop 65% to 47M, especially in the wake of some solid new entries, as well as kids starting to go back to school. Sausage Party is tracking really well, and while its not tracking as high as 30M, it’s tracking in the 20’s, and I think this is a film that has runaway potential. It has a great Rotten Tomatoes score, the word of mouth is primed, and its only competition is Bad Moms, which is slowing down. If you’re looking for a comedy, this is your best bet.

Pete’s Dragon is a film I hoped earlier in the summer would be tracking better than it is. I blame Disney’s marketing, somewhat, as I feel the film hasn’t gotten nearly the push that Cinderella, Alice, or Jungle Book got. It’s not getting the “blockbuster” promotion track, rather the “solid hit” track. So, instead it looks to be on track for a mid-20’s opening, which is going to make 100M an almost impossible journey.

The other new wide release, Florence Foster Jenkins, is actually only getting 1500 screens. That immediately stunts its potential. I do think it will perform well, targeting the under served 60+ crowd, which usually spends the summer twiddling their thumbs in between explosive sequels and cartoons. It should have a good PSA, but nothing that can send it to 10M.

This is the first weekend in a while where all three new releases are tracking Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes.

1) Suicide Squad- 47M Weekend, 229M Total
2) Sausage Party- 30M Weekend, 30M Total
3) Pete’s Dragon- 26M Weekend, 26M Total
4) Jason Bourne- 11M Weekend, 123M Total
5) Bad Moms- 9M Weekend, 67M Total
6) The Secret Life Of Pets- 8M Weekend, 332M Total
7) Florence Foster Jenkins- 6M Weekend, 6M Total
8) Star Trek: Beyond- 6M Weekend, 137M Total
9) Lights Out- 4M Weekend, 61M Total
10) Nine Lives- 3M Weekend, 13M Total

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