Summer Box Office Challenge- How Did I Do?

1) Captain America: Civil War- MY GUESS- 430M, ACTUAL TAKE: 407M
Not bad, except that it isn’t the #1 film of the summer. Finding Dory was. However, I was only 23M short of the final gross, which is pretty close. It is definitely one of my stronger projections.

2) Finding Dory- MY GUESS: 290M, CURRENT TAKE: 477M
I was way short on this, and I predicted it at #2 instead of #1. I suppose I get some points for not projecting its placing any lower than #2, but I’m almost 200M short on my projection. Not a proud moment.

3) X-Men Apocalypse-MY GUESS: 250M Total, ACTUAL TAKE: 155M
I overprojected this by 100M. Damn. It’s also not the third highest of the summer, that would be The Secret Life Of Pets. So, nothing good to see here.

4) Independence Day: Resurgence- MY GUESS: 230M Total, ACTUAL TAKE: 102M
Everyone got this wrong. Luckily I was on the lower end of some of the projections, but I don’t think we saw the 102M flop coming. It’s nowhere near the #4 film of the summer. That would be Suicide Squad.

5) The Secret Lives Of Pets- MY GUESS: 225M Total, CURRENT TAKE: 338M
In my last update in June, I admitted that I was feeling that I had underprojected Pets, and I was right. It ended up much higher, and counting. I don’t think it can pass Captain America: Civil War, so it is safely the #3 film of the summer. The actual #5? X-Men: Apocalypse.

6) Pete’s Dragon- MY GUESS: 220M Total, CURRENT TAKE: 27M
I was thinking that Disney’s golden touch would carry Pete’s Dragon up with the others, but Disney had a bad summer with their live action. Sure, it just opened, but there’s no way it’s hitting 220M. It would take a miracle for it to break 100M at this point. The actual #6? Star Trek Beyond.

7) Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out Of The Shadows- MY GUESS: 210M Total, ACTUAL TAKE: 82M
A huge miss here again for me. I thought the trailers looked like they promised a sequel on par with the original, and after seeing the film, I’m still perplexed as to why more people didn’t come back for the sequel. The actual #7? Jason Bourne.

8) Alice Through The Looking Glass- MY GUESS: 200M Total, ACTUAL TAKE: 77M
Another huge flop. This was the summer of HUGE flops. Lots of sequels didn’t connect with audiences. The actual #8? Central Intelligence.

9) Ghostbusters- MY GUESS: 185M Total, CURRENT TAKE: 122M
So, I bet hard on Ghostbusters, and it hasn’t paid off. However, I did at least correctly guess that it would be in the Top 10 of the summer, it’s just not #9. It’s #10. The actual #9 is The Legend Of Tarzan.

10) Suicide Squad- MY GUESS: 180M Total, CURRENT TAKE: 234M
I also correctly projected Suicide Squad into the top 10, though I didn’t give it nearly enough credit. Suicide Squad will be the #4 film of the summer, and could break 300M.

Top 10 Roundup:
I didn’t get any of my placings correct. Nor did any of my totals land. I did correctly predict 6 of the 10 titles that ended up being in the top 10, though not in the correct order. Here’s the rest of my predictions:

11) Jason Bourne- MY GUESS: 170M, CURRENT TAKE: 130M
This is actually one of my better guesses. It’s slightly overprojected, but I think Jason Bourne could hit 160M, which isn’t a far cry. I should have banked harder, as this actually ended up in the top 10, but I had it just outside at #11.

12) Star Trek Beyond- MY GUESS: 160M Total, CURRENT TAKE: 141M
One of my best guesses, if not my BEST guess. By the time this wraps, it’ll be pretty damn close to 160M.

13) Neighbors 2- MY GUESS: 140M Total, ACTUAL TAKE: 55M
Nowhere near on this one.

14) Ice Age: Collision Course- MY GUESS: 135M Total, ACTUAL TAKE: 59M
Who honestly thought the final Ice Age movie would do so poorly? This has been such a reliable franchise.

15) Now You See Me 2- MY GUESS: 130M Total, ACTUAL TAKE: 65M
Not a great projection, but it did slightly better than Neighbors 2 and Ice Age.

16) Central Intelligence- MY GUESS: 130M Total, ACTUAL TAKE: 127M
Had I known there would have been this many flops, I would have correctly projected Central Intelligence into the top 10, because I basically nailed the shit out of this projection. I mean, only 3M short? Not bad.

17) Angry Birds- MY GUESS: 120M Total, ACTUAL TAKE: 107M
I actually got really close on Angry Birds too, because my gut told me that this was not a major hit. It did just OK, and I was only 13M over. It also did not hit the top 10.

18) The BFG- MY GUESS: 110M Total, ACTUAL TAKE: 53M
Another disappointment. No one cared that Steven Spielberg directed a classic childrens novel.

19) The Legend Of Tarzan- MY GUESS: 100M Total, ACTUAL TAKE: 125M
I ended up underprojecting this, and it surprised me and made the top 10.

Shoulda had my eye on:
The Conjuring 2- I had it in my honorable mention, saying it would just fall shy of 100M. It creeped above, with 102M, though it is still out of the top 10.

Which movie in the top ten will have the highest opening weekend performance? Captain America: Civil War- 180M
Won this.
Which movie in the top ten will have the lowest opening weekend performance? Suicide Squad- 50M
Wow. Totally missed this mark. That would be Central Intelligence at 35M.
Which movie in the top ten will have the highest Rotten Tomatoes score? Pete’s Dragon- 90%
It actually ended up Finding Dory at 94%.
Which movie in the top ten will have the lowest Rotten Tomatoes score? Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out Of The Shadows- 22%
That’s Suicide Squad at 26%.

I was unofficially competing with the guys over at Obsessive Viewer. How did they do?

Matt’s Summer B.O.
Finding Dory – $380,000,000
Captain America: Civil War – $359,000,000
Independence Day: Resurgence – $298,900,000
X-Men: Apocalypse – $225,000,001
Suicide Squad – $215,000,000
Jason Bourne – $200,000,000
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows – $197,000,000
The Secret Life of Pets – $195,000,001
Star Trek Beyond – $145,000,000
The Conjuring 2 – $100,000,000

Matt correctly guessed 7 of 10 titles in the top 10. He underprojected Dory, Cap, Suicide, and Pets. He way overprojected Independence Day, as well as overprojecting X-Men, Jason Bourne, and Ninja Turtles. He gets points for nailing Star Trek Beyond, though it’ll pass 145M, and The Conjuring 2, though it didn’t make the top 10. He missed out on The Legend Of Tarzan, Central Intelligence, and Ghostbusters.

Tiny’s Summer B.O.
Independence Day: Resurgence – $450,000,000
Captain America: Civil War – $395,000,000
Finding Dory – $360,000,000
X Men: Apocalypse – $345,000,000
The Secret Life of Pets – $320,000,000
Suicide Squad – $255,000,000
Ghostbusters – $200,000,000
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows – $185,000,000
Ice Age: Collision Course – $135,000,000
Star Trek Beyond – $125,000,000

Tiny correctly guessed 7 of the 10 titles in the top 10, though again, the grosses are all over the place. He was +350M on Independence Day, but under on Cap and Dory, then way over on X-Men (by almost 200M). He did manage to come close on Pets and Suicide Squad, before overprojecting Ghostbusters, Ninja Turtles, and Ice Age, then underprojecting Star Trek. Tiny also forgot Jason Bourne, Central Intelligence, and The Legend Of Tarzan.

Mike’s Summer B.O.
Finding Dory – $410,000,000
Captain America: Civil War – $400,000,000
The Angry Birds Movie – $340,000,000
X-Men: Apocalypse – $300,000,000
Independence Day: Resurgence – $260,000,000
Suicide Squad – $210,000,000
Ghostbusters – $180,000,000
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows – $160,000,000
Star Trek Beyond – $130,000,000
The Secret Life of Pets – $110,000,000

Mike correctly guessed 7 of the 10 films in the top 10. He ignored Jason Bourne, The Legend Of Tarzan, and Central Intelligence. He also projected 340M for Angry Birds (a 200M+ overprojection), 300M for X-Men (a 150M overprojection), 260M for Independence Day (a 150M+ overprojection), and 160M for Turtles, which didn’t make the top 10. He also way underprojected Pets.

We were all blindsided by a few major flops this summer. Everyone took a hit with Independence Day and Ninja Turtles. I’d give this contest to Matt. I think his projections were the closest, and he got 7/10 right, with some in the right placing. Next summer, I plan to be more stingy about sequels.

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