Box Office Predictions: How ‘Rogue’ Will One Go?

Rogue One is clearly going to win the weekend. Last year, The Force Awakens opened to 247M, and went on to be the top grossing domestic release. Rogue One can’t match that business. It can’t match that hype. It was the long awaited sequel, and the hype machine was much stronger. Now, a new Star Wars film a year later, and I’ve seen predictions as low as 140M. My gut instinct is that many predictors will be talking about how this beats estimates, possibly even mine. I think it could go as high as 180M easily, but I’m playing it safe.

The other new wide release is Will Smith’s poorly reviewed Collateral Beauty. I’m looking for this to be a disappointment, as the reviews are pretty harsh. It’s not just a bad movie, apparently its a terrible one. It’ll be lucky to break into the single digits this weekend.

The holdovers are likely to take bigger than usual hits, as Star Wars sucks the air out of the room. Plus, a slew of new releases are on the horizon. Wednesday brings Sing, Assassins Creed, and Passengers, while Friday adds Why Him? In limited release, Fences starts its run this weekend, before going wide next Friday.

1) Star Wars: Rogue One- 160M Weekend, 160M Total
2) Moana- 12M Weekend, 163M Total
3) Collateral Beauty- 10M Weekend, 10M Total
4) Office Christmas Party- 8M Weekend, 31M Total
5) Fantastic Beasts- 6M Weekend, 209M Total
6) Manchester By The Sea- 4.5M Weekend, 14M Total
7) Arrival- 4M Weekend, 88M Total
8) Doctor Strange- 3M Weekend, 227M Total
9) Allied- 2.5M Weekend, 39M Total
10) Trolls- 2M Weekend, 148M Total

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