Box Office Predictions: ‘XXX’ or ‘Split’?

I have a feeling both Split and XXX3 are going to beat their current projections. I’m seeing Split exploding on tracking, and if The Bye Bye Man can hit 15M with shit reviews, Split might even get 30M with good reviews. Split currently has a 77% on Rotten Tomatoes. Of course, XXX3 hasn’t been screened for critics. Duh. Diesel has a really large social media reach, and I think that while it won’t be a huge release, low 20’s should be in its capabilities.

The other new releases are going to struggle. Michael Keaton’s The Founder is pushing into 1100 screens, and as we saw last weekend with Live By Night, Oscar hopefuls with no hope are getting forgotten at this time of year. The other Oscar hopeful going wide is 20th Century Woman, which has had some buzz, but it’s been small. It could do better based on the nominations that come out the Tuesday after it goes wide. Christian-themed Resurrection Of Gavin Stone is hitting 1,000 screens, and might get some eyes through counterprogramming, but it won’t be a God’s Not Dead.

That means our leftovers will still be doing well, especially Hidden Figures and La La Land, both of which are hoping to get a bunch of nominations on Tuesday. Those nominations will carry both films over the 100M mark. Speaking of 100M… Passengers is really close. Will it break 100M? Another film that’s close is Arrival, which is at 95M. If it got a bunch of nominations, and a slight push back into theatres, it should be able to break 100M.

1) Split- 27M Weekend, 27M Total
2) XXX3- 22M Weekend, 22M Total
3) Hidden Figures- 14M Weekend, 82M Total
4) La La Land- 10M Weekend, 82M Total
5) Sing- 9M Weekend, 250M Total
6) Star Wars: Rogue One- 8M Weekend, 514M Total
7) Patriots Day- 7M Weekend, 26M Total
8) The Bye Bye Man- 6M Weekend, 23M Total
9) Monster Trucks- 5M Weekend, 22M Total
10) Sleepless- 4M Weekend, 16M Total
11) The Founder- 3M Weekend, 3M Total
12) Resurrection Of Gavin Stone- 3M Weekend
13) Underworld: Blood Wars- 3M Weekend, 30M Total
14) Passengers- 3M Weekend, 95M Total
15) Live By Night- 2.5M Weekend, 10M Total
16) Moana- 2.5M Weekend, 237M Total
17) 20th Century Women- 2M Weekend, 3M Total

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