The short answer is “probably”. Oddly enough, Kong: Skull Island is opening without any competition. I find that odd, considering Beauty and the Beast, which is currently projected to open north of 130M, has at least The Belko Experiment opening against it. Logan had both Before I Fall and The Shack. So with schools starting to go on Spring Break, why did Kong get its own weekend?
That will help a lot. Currently, Kong is projected to open around 50M, which should give it the edge against Logan. If Logan only dropped 50%, it would be at 44M, and still behind Kong. However, I’m thinking Kong is going to take up a bit more space, and even though Logan has solid reviews, it’ll still drop about 60% in Week 2. Both films are targeting the same audience, even though Kong is PG-13, and Logan is R.
I originally thought Kong wasn’t going to get the reviews it needed to become a hit, and we would have another Jack and the Giant Slayer on our hands, but it currently sits at 78% on Rotten Tomatoes, which is good enough for it to be successful this weekend.
On the “milestone” front, Logan should pass 100M before Friday, and Get Out will pass 100M over the weekend, most likely on Saturday. Logan will be the 4th, and Get Out the 5th film to pass 100M this year (so far). With Kong looking strong, Beauty and the Beast around the corner, and a few wildcards like Power Rangers, Life, The Boss Baby, and Ghost In The Shell still to come in March, we’re looking at a VERY strong opening to 2017. Last year, only four films in the Jan-Mar span broke 100M, and we’re looking at 7 films (at least) doing that. If any of those wildcards turned in 100M, we’d be twice ahead of last year, not counting April releases like The Fate Of The Furious or the Smurfs movie that also have potential to break out before the summer starts.
The big question is, will this summer be like the last, with mega flop after mega flop? Of the major films opening this summer, which one is the new Alice Through The Looking Glass? Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2? Neighbors 2? Warcraft?
1) Kong: Skull Island- 50M Weekend, 50M Total
2) Logan- 38M Weekend, 154M Total
3) Get Out- 20M Weekend, 110M Total
4) The Shack- 11M Weekend, 32M Total
5) The LEGO Batman Movie- 7M Weekend, 158M Total
6) John Wick 2- 3M Weekend, 88M Total
7) Before I Fall- 2.5M Weekend, 8M Total
8) Hidden Figures- 2.5M Weekend, 162M Total
9) The Great Wall- 2M Weekend, 44M Total
10) Fifty Shades Darker- 2M Weekend, 113M Total