Box Office Predictions: It’s a Tale As Old As Time

We’re headed into spring break time, with many schools being let out, or already out for Spring Break. This is going to start affecting movie attendance, as parents try and find things for their kids to do. Luckily, there are a lot of family friendly films in theatres, and also coming up. This week, Beauty and the Beast is looking to capitalize on this. Some people say it’s tracking at 120-130M, but in the same breath say they wouldn’t be surprised by a 160M debut. That’s a 30M difference. You gotta come closer than that.

So why did I go with 150M? First off, there’s a LOT of competition in the marketplace. Kong, Logan, and Get Out are all still drawing eyes. While none of those are “family films” they still are competition for adults who might wait until the audience has died down for Beauty, and see something else this weekend instead. Not everyone enjoys sitting in sold out auditoriums with tons of children. That being said, Fandango has tracked this as the best pre-selling family film in the history of their service. More people have pre-bought tickets to this, than Finding Dory, and that film had a huge opening. So if this is outpacing that, it must be headed for an opening north of 130M. For me, I think it’s probably going to wind up around 150M. It is hard when a film opens this high to get it perfect, but I had a hunch about Logan, and I ended up being right. I also think this will blast past projections and do better than expected.

So where does that leave Belko Experiement? I think the 3M projected opening is soft. Really soft. This film has had a good marketing campaign, it has decent reviews, and I know a ton of people who want to see it. It seems to be genre bending, like a comedy/horror. Get Out is still doing well, but I think there’s room for Belko to crash the marketplace. It has a cast of recognizable faces, but no A-listers. I don’t usually catch horror films right out of the gate, and I’m planning on seeing this on opening weekend. That’s how pumped I am, and I can’t be the only one.

So where does that leave our holdovers? Look, they’re all going to take harder than usual drops as Beauty sucks up the air. But because audiences have so far favored Kong, Logan, and Get Out, their drops won’t be super bad. Just more than they would normally have been if there wasn’t a 150M titan opening. Logan is clearly going to break 200M. Kong will break 100M this weekend. This has been a very good year for crowd pleasers, as audiences have been willing to spend their money on well-reviewed, liked films.

To be fair, I’m not actually sure Before I Fall will stay in the top 10. Or even John Wick 2 for that matter. Their grosses are so low, that if a limited release expanded enough (like The Last Word), they could knock one of those out (or possibly both). But I don’t get enough info about expansions in advance to know if that’s going to happen. There could also be a Bollywood title no one even sees coming that could steal their spots. I think Hidden Figures does have one more week in the top 10 before three wide releases knock it out next weekend.

Speaking of, are you excited for Power Rangers? Life? Chips? Tracking on all three is actually pretty good. Power Rangers is looking t 30-40M, with Life and Chips both tracking 15-20M. Get ready to open your wallets.

Current Rotten Tomatoes Scores:
Beauty and the Beast- 68%
The Belko Experiment- 50%
Power Rangers, Life, Chips- Not Yet Screened For Critics
The Boss Baby- 33%
Ghost In The Shell- Not Yet Screened For Critics

1) Beauty and the Beast- 150M Weekend, 150M Total
2) Kong Skull Island- 26M Weekend, 109M Total
3) Logan- 18M Weekend, 186M Total
4) Get Out- 13M Weekend, 133M Total
5) The Belko Experiment- 10M Weekend, 10M Total
6) The Shack- 6M Weekend, 43M Total
7) The LEGO Batman Movie- 4M Weekend, 167M Total
8) Hidden Figures- 2M Weekend, 166M Total
9) John Wick 2- 1.5M Weekend, 90M Total
10) Before I Fall- 1M Weekend, 10M Total

Say Something!

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s