It’s pretty likely that the top three movies this weekend will be family films. That’s a lot of audience splitting in preparation for The Fate Of The Furious. I’m betting that the arrival of Smurfs will cut into both Boss Baby and Beauty and the Beast, causing harsher than needed drops. Power Rangers will likely also continue its free fall.
Smurfs is pretty review-proof. It’s a film that people assume critics won’t like, but their little ones will. So, the 33% on Rotten Tomatoes won’t be a factor.
On the adult side, Going In Style is likely to benefit from being a grown up picture. Not just for grown ups, but really the over 50 set that has been somewhat underserved recently. This crowd has turned out for sleeper hits in the past, like The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, and could turn Going In Style into a sleeper as well.
However, is it good? The reluctance to screen Going In Style has me worried. If this turns out to be a stinker, I think adults will avoid it, and it won’t make 10M.
The only really interesting thing about this weekend is that by the time Sunday rolls around, Beauty and the Beast will have passed into the Top 20 of All Time. Currently, it sits at #26. By Sunday it will have passed such heavy hitters like Frozen, The Lion King, and Captain America: Civil War. It only needs 461M to crack the top 10, which seems fairly likely. In fact, it has a shot at being the top Disney title ever if it can pass Finding Dory at 486M.
1) The Boss Baby- 25M Weekend, 87M Total
2) Beauty and the Beast- 24M Weekend, 429M Total
3) Smurfs: The Lost Village- 20M Weekend, 20M Total
4) Going In Style- 10M Weekend, 10M Total
5) Ghost In The Shell- 9M Weekend, 33M Total
6) Power Rangers- 7M Weekend, 75M Total
7) Kong: Skull Island- 5.5M Weekend, 155M Total
8) Logan- 4M Weekend, 218M Total
9) Get Out- 4M Weekend, 163M Total
10) Life- 3M Weekend, 27M Total