After having the biggest September ever, with hit films like It and Kingsman, October is looking now at which films are going to hit and send October to new heights. Blade Runner 2049 is the first one of those films destined to be one of the 100M films of 2017. The Ryan Gosling/Harrison Ford sequel opens in 3900 screens with a 95% on Rotten Tomatoes. Not only do people love it, but they REALLY love it. I’ve heard many critics call it the best film of the year, believing it has a shot at a Best Picture nomination, and a Cinematography Oscar for Roger Deakins. So, take this film seriously. I think audiences will show up, regardless of whether or not they’ve seen the original. I don’t think this film can do the 50M some are projecting, and I think 40M is just as respectable an opening.
It opens against the My Little Pony movie. Honestly, I think the film has been undermarketed, which is why tracking on this film is 8-10M. I think there are a lot more fans of this franchise than 8-10M, but they may not know the film is opening this weekend. It might take them a week or two to get to the theatres, once they realize it’s open. The Mountain Between Us starring Kate Winselt and Idris Elba is also set to open on 3000 screens. The drama won’t be a huge contender, and is likely to finish in the 7-9M range.
Also, Victoria and Abdul expands into 750 screens, and there’s a family film called The Stray opening in 630 screens.
Next weekend, Happy Death Day is probably going to be the biggest of the new releases. Tracking shows it possibly hitting 20M, and I think that’s accurate. It might even go higher. It’s opening against the Jackie Chan/Pierce Brosnan film The Foreigner and the Chadwick Boseman biopic Marshall. It’s possible that The Foreigner will open to 10M, but Marshall is unlikely to do double digits.
1) Blade Runner 2049- 40M Weekend, 40M Total
2) It- 10M Weekend, 305M Total
3) My Little Pony- 9M Weekend, 9M Total
4) Kingsman 2- 8.5M Weekend, 81M Total
5) American Made- 8M Weekend, 32M Total
6) The Mountain Between Us- 7.5M Weekend, 7.5M Total
7) LEGO Ninjago- 7M Weekend, 44M Total
8) Victoria and Abdul- 3M Weekend, 5M Total
9) Flatliners- 3M Weekend, 11M Total
10) Battle Of The Sexes- 2M Weekend, 8M Total