This weekend, Iron Man 3 faces some competition from Leonardo DiCaprio’s Great Gatsby. Gatsby isn’t typical summer fare, and targets the demo that made The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel and Moonrise Kingdom sleeper hits last summer. The difference here is that Gatsby is going wide. No surprise, since it has a bonafide star in DiCaprio. My predictions below:

1) Iron Man 3- 77M, 305-315M total.

Iron Man is virtually unstoppable. Normally, big films crumble though in their second week, simply because of heavy upfront business. The first Iron Man dropped a respectable 48%, Iron Man 2 dipped 59%. This one should be closer to the sequel, because the first week haul was larger, even though 3 is getting better reviews than 2. I’m predicting around a 55% drop to 77M. It faces no direct competition from any new genre entries. Star Trek: Into Darkness will take a chunk next week, but Gatsby isn’t pulling much of the same audience that Iron Man 3 is looking to pull.

2) Great Gatsby- 25M

Leonardo DiCaprio’s last five films in wide release opened at 30.1, 11.2, 62.7, 41.0, and 12.0. That largest opening is Inception, which is the only film on the list that is a summer release. Of course, that had several other factors, including Chris Nolan and a strong supporting cast. Tobey Maguire hasn’t been a box office draw since exiting the Spider-Man franchise, and Carey Mulligan is still on the “rising star” list, and isn’t expected to anchor the movie. Baz Luhrmann’s highest opening was 14M, and his highest grossing film is 57M. It is rumored that Gatsby’s budget is 120M, which is outrageous considering that Luhrmann has never delivered a 100M success. His films are heavily stylized and often don’t appeal to a mass audience, as witnessed by the notorious Australia. Critics are not in love with the film. Currently it is tracking only at 43% on Rotten Tomatoes, so reviews won’t help the film. This is solely a test of DiCaprio’s star power, and the source material’s appeal. With nothing in wide release appealing to the older crowd, Gatsby could open to around 25M this weekend.

3) Peeples- 11M

Depending on when you caught the advertising campaign for Peeples, you may or may not know that Tyler Perry is producing. It seems odd that they’ve since tried to have a marketing campaign that doesn’t push his name as loudly, since he is a fairly proven quantity at the box office. Instead, they are attempting to sell this movie on Craig Robinson and Kerry Washington’s star power. Neither of them have proven themselves at the box office. Previous movies aimed at black audiences in May have had mixed results. Next Day Air opened to 4M in 2009. Just Wright wasn’t right with 8M. Jumping The Broom surprised with 15M in 2011. Peeples will have very little competition from 42, but will only suffer from a general lack of disinterest in the film. I’m projecting 11M for the weekend.

The Rest of the Top 10:

4) Pain and Gain- 4M- 40M total

5) 42- 4M- 83M total

6) Oblivion- 3M- 80M total

7) The Croods- 3M- 172M total

8) The Big Wedding- 2M- 17M total

9) Mud- 1.5M- 7M total

10) Oz- 1M- 230M total