This category is always, oddly, a bit more wide-open. Sometimes you get a nomination thrown to someone like Connie Britton for Nashville, who is unlikely to repeat that nomination for the second season. However, you can bet that Elizabeth Moss will probably repeat for Mad Men, as will Julianna Margulies for The Good Wife. Claire Danes is on shakier ground, as her last season of Homeland wasn’t quite as well received, but she should still get nominated. Same for Robin Wright in House Of Cards.
None of those four ladies are locks though, because coming up behind them are buzzy performances from Lizzy Caplan in Masters of Sex and Tatiana Maslany in Orphan Black. Kerry Washington is still a favorite for Scandal, and Vera Farmiga is definitely in the mix for Bates Motel. I also definitely wouldn’t count out Keri Russell for The Americans.
With so many actual contenders, it makes it very hard for there to be actual longshots. Michelle Dockery, a past nominee for Downton Abbey, will likely have to sit this cycle out. Diane Kruger will likely get votes for The Bridge, but will it be enough? And Katey Sagal sadly never gets recognized for her brilliant performance in Sons Of Anarchy. And to some extent, Mariska Hargitay I’m sure always gets votes for SVU.
My votes would go to Sagal, Washington, Farmiga, Kruger, Marguilies, and Wright
I think the Emmy voters will pick Moss, Marguilies, Caplan, Washington, Russell, and Farmiga. I’m having a hard time not putting Danes, but I think Homeland is going to get shut out a lot this year.