1) The Maze Runner- 25M Weekend, 25M Total
I’ve seen people claiming this is a 30M opener, and that the film is tracking really well. I don’t think this has 30M potential, and the tracking could lead to a 25M weekend. Reviews have been mixed, and this is September. Even with 25M, it becomes the 12th highest opener in September… EVER. Only 8 movies have made 30M or more in their opening weekend. 25M is quite exceptional for September.
2) A Walk Among The Tombstones- 17M Weekend, 17M Total
Liam Neeson’s latest revenge pic hasn’t screened for critics, but audiences likely won’t care. Non-Stop opened to 28M earlier this year. There’s a certain kind of film that works well for Neeson, and this seems to be in his wheelhouse. Of course, this is September, not February, so the grosses will be muted a bit.
3) No Good Deed- 12M Weekend, 42M Total
A 50% drop to 12M is likely, considering the reviews and the cinemascore.
4) This Is Where I Leave You- 10M Weekend, 10M Total
Jason Bateman’s latest ensemble comedy has OK reviews, and could thrive in a marketplace where Lets Be Cops is the only comedy around. Tracking isn’t heavy for this one, but counterprogramming should help it in the end.
5) Dolphin Tale 2- 9M Weekend, 27M Total
Dolphin Tale 2 is unlikely to drop the full 50%, probably a safer drop of 40%.
6) Guardians Of The Galaxy- 5.5M Weekend, 314M Total
7) Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles- 3.5M Weekend, 186M Total
8) Lets Be Cops- 3M Weekend, 78M Total
9) The Drop- 2.5M Weekend, 8M Total
10) If I Stay- 2.5M Weekend, 48M Total
??) Tusk- 1.5M Weekend, 1.5M Total
No, I didn’t forget Tusk, I just don’t think it’ll break the top 10. It’s only going to appeal to a very specific subset of horror genre fans. It’s a film that’s about a madman who turns Justin Long into a walrus. It’s supposed to be kind of a comedy, also. I just think too many people will find this to be too weird, or too disgusting, and on only 500 screens it won’t make enough of an impact to crack the top 10.