Box Office Predictons: Can Keanu Fight For First In ‘John Wick’?

1) Ouija- 18M Weekend, 18M Total
This well marketed horror flick hasn’t screened for critics yet, but the tracking suggests it might win a very tight weekend. A PG-13 rating will help it, for sure, but poor word of mouth could hurt it on Saturday and Sunday. Friday’s numbers (and early Thursday box office) will help solidify whether or not Ouija can eek out a win.

2) John Wick- 15M Weekend, 15M Total

Keanu Reeves normally is not a huge box office draw, but a 93% on Rotten Tomatoes will help more than his name. Plus, a little bump from having IMAX screens won’t hurt either.

3) Fury- 15M Weekend, 49M Total

Brad Pitt’s Fury should drop a respectable 40% in Week 2, as word of mouth should be good. It’ll fight with Keanu’s John Wick for second place.

4) Gone Girl- 12M Weekend, 126M Total

Gone Girl is still the movie everyone has to see, and will hold with a nice 30% drop again this week.

5) Book Of Life- 11M Weekend, 31M Total

No new direct competition will keep Book of Life in the Top 5.

6) St Vincent- 8M Weekend, 9M Total

Without knowing the exact screen count of Bill Murray’s new film, I have a hard time predicting a runaway hit. Good word of mouth, and probably at least 1000 screens could get the film a nice chunk of change this weekend.

7) Alexander…- 7M Weekend, 45M Total

8) The Best Of Me- 4.5M Weekend, 18M Total

9) Dracula Untold- 4.5M Weekend, 49M Total

10) The Judge- 4.5M Weekend, 35M Total

Wildcards:

Dear White People expands this weekend into an unknown (right now) screen count, and could do well. It’s unlikely that it will get enough screens to break 4.5M, as it is not going wide.

23 Blast is targeting a Christian audience, and a football audience, in 600 screens. As par for the course with Christian releases, they can either fall completely off the map, or become really big hits. It’s almost impossible to gauge these things without knowing advance ticket sales (churches buying out theatres). A PG-13 rating suggests this might not be as “family friendly” as some other offerings, and might cause 23 Blast to be a disappointment. Still, Meet The Mormons has made 4.5M so far without ever cracking the Top 10, so there’s something.

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