My gut instinct is that 60M is a lowball projection for 50 Shades of Grey. It’s a super-hyped film that has strong advance ticket sales, resulting even in some sold out showtimes already at theatres. So, while most people are saying 60M, I’ve got to believe it can do more than that. It might even do solid numbers tonight, as well as Friday and Saturday. With a holiday for some people coming on Monday, Sunday should be stronger than usual as people won’t be getting ready for work or school. The highest Rated R opening was Matrix Reloaded at 91.7M. 70M is about what 300 made, and I believe that Fifty Shades has at least 70M in it (and I’m only talking 3 days).
Also opening in wide release is The Kingsman, which has solid reviews, and a strong marketing campaign. As decent counterprogramming to Fifty Shades, The Kingsman should do really well this weekend too. It is hampered a bit by its R rating, as well as its lack of a truly bankable star (sorry, Colin Firth).
Amidst all the Valentines day madness, Spongebob will still stand strong. A solid second weekend of close to 35M is likely, as this is a long weekend, and there are no new kids films entering the marketplace. Also likely this weekend? American Sniper will break 300M.
Opening in limited release, the musical adaptation of Jason Robert Brown’s The Last Five Years, starring Anna Kendrick and Jeremy Jordan. In about 200 screens, Old Fashioned hopes to court the Valentines audience, and What We Do In The Shadows opens as well.
Next weekend? Nothing really big. Hot Tub Time Machine 2 will probably be the biggest opener, but it’s doubtful that it will break 20M. Also opening, McFarland USA and The DUFF.
1) Fifty Shades Of Grey- 70M Weekend, 70M Total
2) Spongebob Squarepants 2- 34M Weekend, 99M Total
3) The Kingsman- 25M Weekend, 25M Total
4) American Sniper- 15M Weekend, 303M Total
5) Jupiter Ascending- 9M Weekend, 33M Total
6) Seventh Son- 3.5M Weekend, 13M Total
7) Paddington- 3.5M Weekend, 62M Total
8) The Imitation Game- 3M Weekend, 79M Total
9) Project Almanac- 3M Weekend, 20M Total
10) The Wedding Ringer- 2.5M Weekend, 59M Total