Obviously, Batman Vs Superman is going to win the weekend. The question is, how high can Superman fly? Man Of Steel opened to 116M and a 56% on Rotten Tomatoes. Batman Vs Superman is tracking better than that, but has a worse RT score (39%). How will the critics affect opening weekend? This is likely a movie where most of the people who want to see it, will see it anyway, just to gauge for themselves if it sucks or not. That RT score will affect the week-to-week drops, and overall word of mouth, but opening weekend is likely not to be affected too much. You either wanted to see Batman Vs Superman or not, and you made that decision long before someone reviewed it. Expectations are currently really high. The film is trading for 429 million on HSX, a gaming website where box office results are bought and sold. That means that the majority of the players believe BVS will make around 429M in its first eight weeks of release. That’s a really high bar set. The opening weekend stock is a bit high for me, around 169M. I’m not sure it can fly THAT high. The biggest Easter opening ever was Furious 7 last year at 147M. And that was when Easter was in April. March’s highest opening was set by The Hunger Games at 152M, and hasn’t been beaten since 2012. in fact, only two films have ever made more than 100M in March. The other being Alice In Wonderland. So, Batman Vs Superman would be setting a mini-record just by making 155M, beating Hunger Games and being the 3rd film to break 100M in March.
The other film opening is My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2, which you would think wouldn’t be tracking well at all. 14 years from the original to today. Is there really a market for this sequel? Should this have even been made? Yes, the first one did well, but it also followed a really unique box office pattern that is rarely duplicated. Only a few films in history have ever platformed like Greek Wedding did, and the other films I can think of were both horror films (Blair Witch Project and Paranormal Activity). It’s unlikely that Greek Wedding 2 will even make a fourth of what the original made.
Zootopia has been enjoying really good holds from week-to-week, and with Easter being a family holiday, I think it will continue to perform well in spite of Batman. Allegiant is likely to take a decent hit, and Deadpool will also likely have its biggest decline to date. Miracles From Heaven should hold well this weekend.
1) Batman Vs Superman: Dawn Of Justice- 160M Weekend, 160M Total
2) Zootopia- 25M Weekend, 238M Total
3) Allegiant- 15M Weekend, 52M Total
4) My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2- 10M Weekend, 10M Total
5) Miracles From Heaven- 9M Weekend, 32M Total
6) 10 Cloverfield Lane- 7M Weekend, 56M Total
7) Deadpool- 5M Weekend, 349M Total
8) London Has Fallen- 4M Weekend, 56M Total
9) Whiskey Tango Foxtrot- 1.5M Weekend, 23M Total
10) Hello My Name Is Doris- 1M Weekend, 2.5M total