Box Office Predictions: Can Cap Three-Peat?

Captain America faces some truly legit competition this weekend from Neighbors 2 and Angry Birds. Both are tracking in the 40M range, with Cap landing just above it. If either film breaks out, Cap could lose his #1 spot. I’m putting them really close, because they are, and anything could happen. Captain America: Civil War dropped 59% last weekend, which is promising. It’s third weekend drop won’t be nearly that high, and could possibly be in the 45-50% range.

The first Neighbors opened to 49M two years ago. Does Neighbors 2 have that kind of life in it? Yes and no. When Neighbors opened, its only competition was the second weekend of Amazing Spider-Man 2. In fact, only those two films made more than 10M that weekend. Here, there are 5 films projected above 10M, with three of them likely to make north of 30, and possibly even 40. It’s feasible that all three overperform and end up in the 40-45M range. Neighbors 2 doesn’t quite have a clear shot that it did before.

Angry Birds doesn’t really have a comp. Some people have used The LEGO Movie as a comp, which opened to 69M, but that opened in February and not May. The closest comp I can come up with is Over The Hedge, which wasn’t already an established franchise, and opened to 38M. Angry Birds has fans because of the mobile game, but we aren’t really that familiar with the characters yet.

For both new entries, reviews are in the middle. Neighbors 2 is slightly positive right now with 65%, while Angry Birds is slightly rotten at 56%. The weeks other new release, The Nice Guys, should benefit most from reviews and word of mouth. Prior to opening, Nice Guys was tracking soft, with a 10-12M opening, which was virtually the same range as Money Monster. With the reviews coming in, Nice Guys is now projected to overperform, closer to the 14-16M range. It still won’t be a huge threat to the top 3, but it will be taking some eyes away. Last weekends Money Monster is most likely to be hurt by Nice Guys, as they’re both targeting the adult crowd.

The following weekend, Cap will finally lose his #1 spot to X-Men Apocalypse, which is not getting good reviews, but should still open well. The other major film opening is Alice Through The Looking Glass, which has some pretty bad reviews too, and hovers at 27% on Rotten Tomatoes. Disney’s marketing machine has tapered off a bit on Alice. Maybe they smell a flop coming? After three 300M hits in Zootopia, Jungle Book, and Captain America, Disney was bound to put something out that didn’t quite live up to expectations. No one is that lucky. They’ll have another hit in Finding Dory in June though so don’t feel too bad for them.

1) Captain America: Civil War- 40M Weekend, 352M Total
2) Neighbors 2- 39M Weekend, 39M Total
3) Angry Birds- 38M Weekend, 38M Total
4) The Nice Guys- 15M Weekend, 15M Total
5) The Jungle Book- 11M Weekend, 327M Total
6) Money Monster- 8M Weekend, 28M Total
7) The Darkness- 2.5M Weekend, 9M Total
8) Mothers Day- 2M Weekend, 32M Total
9) Zootopia- 2M Weekend, 334M Total
10) Tne Huntsman- 1.5M Weekend, 47M Total

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