Box Office Predictions: ‘Don’t Breathe’ Ahead Of ‘Suicide’

Don’t Breathe is likely to win the weekend, following in the success of Lights Out, and capitalizing on the lack of competition for the top spot. The film currently has a strong 88% on Rotten Tomatoes leading into the weekend, which should help it stay alive. It’s biggest competition is the 4 week old Suicide Squad, and it should be able to get past that. This is one of the slower weeks of the year, so don’t expect it to break out into 20M territory, but it should do just enough. This weekend is kind of an “unload” weekend where studios put films that wouldn’t trend at any other time of the year. Next weekend is the same.

Also opening wide is Mechanic Resurrection. The first film didn’t even manage 30M at the box office, so it begs the question “why are we getting a sequel?” There’s a limited audience here, and Mechanic will struggle to find it.

Opening in about 800 screens each are Hands Of Stone and Southside With You. Southside has much better reviews, with a 90% on Rotten Tomatoes, and the added interest of it being about our current President. This film was supposed to start in less screens, but recently got bumped up to a moderate release. The studio must be confident in the numbers coming in, and I think it will have a solid debut. Hands Of Stone is looking to target the hispanic audience, but it will struggle due to low feedback from critics. At 44%, it potentially is the lowest of the new entries (Mechanic hasn’t been screened for critics).

The lack of new competition is good news for holdovers, which should all see stronger than usual holds. For films like Bad Moms and Secret Life Of Pets that were already holding well, it means they’ll barely drop week-to-week as people still feel like they have to check those summer hits off their watch list, as more word of mouth is passed around. Bad Moms is getting closer and closer to the 100M mark, as is Sausage Party. Both films should manage this feat at some point in September.

1) Don’t Breathe- 14M Weekend, 14M Total
2) Suicide Squad- 11M Weekend, 283M Total
3) Sausage Party- 9M Weekend, 82M Total
4) War Dogs- 8M Weekend, 30M Total
5) Kubo and the Two Strings- 7M Weekend, 25M Total
6) Mechanic: Resurrection- 6.5M Weekend, 6.5M Total
7) Pete’s Dragon- 6M Weekend, 54M Total
8) Ben Hur- 5.5M Weekend, 21M Total
9) Bad Moms- 5M Weekend, 94M Total
10) Jason Bourne- 4.5M Weekend, 149M Total
11) The Secret Life Of Pets- 4M Weekend, 354M Total
12) Florence Foster Jenkins- 3M Weekend, 20M Total
13) Southside With You- 2.5M Weekend, 2.5M Total
14) Hands Of Stone- 2M Weekend, 2M Total
15) Star Trek Beyond- 2M Weekend, 150M Total

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