Box Office Predictions: Audiences Go Back To ‘Jack Reacher’

There are a handful of new wide releases this weekend hoping to reenergize the box office. The leader of the pack is Tom Cruise’s Jack Reacher sequel, which hopes to make an impact in a marketplace crowded with adult-targeted films. The first Jack Reacher actually only opened to 15M back in 2012, topping out at 80M domestic, so this is not a juggernaut franchise. In fact, with the other new releases, and The Accountant holding over, Reacher might top out at 20M.

Reacher’s biggest competition seems to be Ouija: Origin of Evil, which currently has an 89% on Rotten Tomatoes. If critics can convince audiences that this is better than the original, Ouija might do well this weekend. The original opened to 19.8M before topping out at 50M, roughly a 2.5 multiplier versus the 5.3X that Jack Reacher managed. It is October, the month when people seek out horror flicks, and Ouija is the only major horror film right now so an opening in the high teens is still likely.

Tyler Perry is bringing back Madea for Boo! A Madea Halloween, which basically started out as a joke in Chris Rock’s Top Five and is now a reality. The last time we saw Madea, she was having Christmas, with a 16M opening and a 52M finish. I don’t expect this to have as big of an impact on opening, especially considering the competition.

If that wasn’t enough, we also have the comedy Keeping Up With The Joneses, starring Jon Hamm, Zach Galafanakis, Gal Gadot, and Isla Fisher. Recognizable names, sure. Hamm hasn’t really had the opportunity to prove himself as a bankable star after Mad Men, but Galafanakis has anchored a few films, with hit-or-miss results. Most recently, his film Masterminds flopped. I don’t think Joneses will fare much better than Masterminds, especially considering the sad 13% on Rotten Tomatoes. One critic called it a “black hole”. Not good.

Opening in 500 screens is the PureFlix release I’m Not Ashamed. I haven’t seen a lot of publicity for this, so I’m not sure if this is about to be another God’s Not Dead, but I’m leaning towards no. In limited release, the buzzy Oscar hopeful Moonlight opens, and starts its run for the gold.

1) Jack Reacher: Never Go Back- 20M Weekend, 20M Total
2) Ouija: Origin Of Evil- 18M Weekend, 18M Total
3) Boo! A Madea Halloween- 14M Weekend, 14M Total
4) The Accountant- 13M Weekend, 46M Total
5) Keeping Up With The Joneses- 9M Weekend, 9M Total
6) The Girl On The Train- 7M Weekend, 58M Total
7) Kevin Hart: What Now- 6.5M Weekend, 22M Total
8) Miss Peregrine’s Home For Peculiar Children- 5.5M Weekend, 73M Total
9) Deepwater Horizon- 4.5M Weekend, 56M Total
10) Storks- 4M Weekend, 64M Total

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