Box Office Predictions: Can Emma Watson Beat Vin Diesel?

This weekend, there are three new releases trying to overtake The Fate Of The Furious. Although, really only one has the potential. The Circle, starring Emma Watson and Tom Hanks is the only one getting enough of a screen count to be taken seriously. Both How To Be A Latin Lover and Sleight are getting soft wide releases, and would have a hard road getting to even 10M. Interestingly, The Circle has not been reviewed by critics… which is usually a bad sign. The Circle is not in one of the areas usually not screened for critics, which means the studio has very little faith in the quality of the film. That perhaps explains the release date, where it will be crushed in its second Weekend by Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol 2. Still, Emma Watson is a huge star right now thanks to Beauty and the Beast. That alone should help the film, not to mention the presence of Tom Hanks, and Star Wars alum John Boyega.

How To Be A Latin Lover is being set in 1,000 screens. It features the same Mexican actor from Instructions Not Included, which was a huge hit a few years back. He’s now teamed with a partially English speaking cast, featuring actors like Kristen Bell and Salma Hayek. I’m betting there’s still an audience for him, though I don’t know if this will be quite the breakout smash. It also hasn’t been screened for critics. The last film opening is Sleight, which had seemed to be getting some really good buzz, but now sits at a disappointing 58% on Rotten Tomatoes. It’s possible that the marketing campaign still hooked enough interest, but with only 1,000 screens, how high can it possibly go?

Another factor in this weeks box office is an expansion for The Promise, but with it already being in over 2,000 screens, I’m not sure how much it will help. I’m fairly certain it will still fall out of the top 10. I’m surprised Colossal isn’t going wide yet. I wonder what the strategy is there. Their Finest is continuing to expand, but I don’t think it can crack the top 10.

Beauty and the Beast, as of Monday, sat at #10 on the All Time Domestic Chart. I’m predicting, by Sunday, it will be in 9th place, having surpassed The Phantom Menace. It can’t go higher than 8th, as the 532M made by Rogue One is just out of reach at this point.

Speaking of All Time numbers, Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol 2 opens next weekend, and the original sits at #47 on the All Time chart with 333.1M. How much can the sequel improve, and how high will it go?

1) The Fate Of The Furious- 18M Weekend, 190M Total
2) The Circle- 14M Weekend, 14M Total
3) The Boss Baby- 9M Weekend, 148M Total
4) Beauty and the Beast- 7M Weekend, 480M Total
5) How To Be A Latin Lover- 5M Weekend, 5M Total
6) Sleight- 4M Weekend, 4M Total
7) Going In Style- 3.5M Weekend, 37M Total
8) Smurfs: The Lost Village- 3M Weekend, 37M Total
9) Gifted- 3M Weekend, 15M Total
10) Born In China- 3M Weekend, 9M Total

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