Box Office Predictions: How High Can ‘Guardians’ Go?

Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol 2 opens on Friday, virtually unchecked. It will absorb almost every ticket sale this weekend, as its closest competition will struggle to make 10M in second place. The original opened to 94.3M, but had incredible legs. That will lead to some serious growth in the second film, with advance sales being compared to Captain America: Civil War. Just how much growth though? Industry experts are pegging this film between 140-160M. I think that right in the middle of that is where it will line up. It won’t be the biggest opening of May, but it might just end up the top opening of the summer, as the next big films enter in a more crowded marketplace. Guardians is the only major release this summer that is entering in a virtually dead box office.

As far as the holdovers go, How To Be A Latin Lover might hold really well given a planned expansion. It is hoping to be in over 2000 screens by Mother’s Day. It’s also a crowdpleaser, and good counterprogramming to Guardians. The other big surprise, Baahubali 2, is still a Bollywood title, which always experience large 2nd week drops. Most of the ones that have surprised and hit the Top 10 have fallen out in the second week. Luckily, Baahubali 2 opened so big, it really can’t fall out of the top 10. An expansion would be smart, and could soften the drop, but I’m not sure that’s happening. Those IMAX screens it had last weekend will be lost to Guardians, so that’s a little hit to its potential.

Meanwhile, the rest of the Top 10 is populated by time proven crowdpleasers, from The Boss Baby and Beauty and the Beast to Gifted and Going In Style. The odd man out is The Circle. That D+ cinemascore could give a 70% drop in Week 2.

As far as potential limited releases, Sleight isn’t likely to expand. Colossal doesn’t have a great per-screen average already, and probably won’t be going much wider.

1) Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol 2- 150M Weekend, 150M Total
2) The Fate Of The Furious- 9M Weekend, 208M Total
3) How To Be A Latin Lover- 7M Weekend, 24M Total
4) The Boss Baby- 6.5M Weekend, 158M Total
5) Beauty and the Beast- 4.5M Weekend, 488M Total
6) Baahubali 2- 4M Weekend, 18M Total
7) The Circle- 3.5M Weekend, 15M Total
8) Going In Style- 2M Weekend, 41M Total
9) Smurfs: The Lost Village- 2M Weekend, 41M Total
10) Gifted- 2M Weekend, 19M Total

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