Box Office Predictions: ‘Guardians’ To Be Defeated By ‘Alien’

After spending two weeks at the top of the box office, the Guardians Of The Galaxy are going to be defeated by an unlikely source. Aliens. It’s kinda poetic when you think about it. A group of space heroes finally defeated by an alien force stronger than them. Of course, Guardians is also in its third weekend, so it’s a bit vulnerable. The biggest comp for Alien Covenant is Prometheus, which opened to 51M and finished with 126M. That film disappointed a lot of people, and those who aren’t looking for a Prometheus sequel may be hesitant to come back for Alien Covenant. However, Alien Covenant is getting good reviews, with a 77% on Rotten Tomatoes, though Prometheus had a 72%. FOX is hoping that the return of Ridley Scott to the franchise will bring back hardcore fans.

Also opening is the new Diary of A Wimpy Kid movie. Here’s the thing… I literally haven’t seen a preview for this film. With all the movies I see in theatres, and all the TV I watch… I don’t know where they’re marketing this film, but I have not been hit with a single preview for this. I’m betting awareness for this sequel is very low. I did seek out the preview on YouTube, so I know what this film is about. The Wimpy Kid movies have lost a bit of steam with each entry. The first one made 22M opening weekend, and finished with 64M domestically. The third film opened with 14M and finished with 49M domestically. The fourth entry, which features a new cast, is likely to continue that trend. The fourth film has the lowest RT score, with 22%. To be fair, none of the films in the franchise have scored fresh, but they’ve all scored higher in the 47-53% range.

Also opening is the teen drama Everything Everything, which is hoping to be this summers The Fault In Our Stars or Me Before You. Everything has not screened for critics yet, which can’t be a good sign. Me Before You opened to 18M, though I don’t think there’s a chance that Everything hits that high.

Last weekends new films, Snatched and King Arthur, both aren’t projected to have strong legs. Snatched managed only a B cinemascore, while King Arthur fared better at a B+. Still, all the talk about how big a flop King Arthur is will end up hurting it. It puts out that kind of vibe that says “wait for video” to anyone on the fence.

Next weekend, Pirates and Baywatch gear up for Memorial Day. Both films are projected to do really well over the holiday weekend. Some believe that Pirates will cross 100M by the end of Memorial Day, with Baywatch pulling in another 50M in the same frame.

1) Alien Covenant- 44M Weekend, 44M Total
2) Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol 2- 30M Weekend, 296M Total
3) Diary Of A Wimpy Kid 4- 10M Weekend, 10M Total
4) Everything Everything- 10M Weekend, 10M Total
5) Snatched- 9M Weekend, 33M Total
6) King Arthur- 7M Weekend, 27M Total
7) Beauty and the Beast- 3.5M Weekend, 499M Total
8) The Fate Of The Furious- 3M Weekend, 219M Total
9) The Boss Baby- 3M Weekend, 166M Total
10) How To Be A Latin Lover- 2.5M Weekend, 30M Total

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