Not really. I just mean that Despicable Me 3 is going to run this 4th of July Super-Long Weekend. It’s weird to have the 4th of July on a Tuesday, because then the question is, do you predict a 5-Day weekend? What about Baby Driver? 7-Day projection?
I’m legitimately terrified of this weekend. If Despicable Me 3 bombs, then we can just give the fuck up. On movies. On predicting. On life. You choose. Just throw your hands up in the air and walk away. Here’s why:
Despicable Me 3, first off, is a kids movie. It does have competition, but from Captain Underpants (which is barely grossing money right now) and Cars 3 (Which disappointed in its opening frame). Parents HAVE to take their kids out of the house during the summer. On top of that, it’s getting decent reviews (64% on Rotten Tomatoes), so it’s not like the film is bad. HOWEVER, it’s basically the same RT score as Cars 3 (66%), also a threequel. But, Despicable Me 2 actually opened higher than Cars 2, and Despicable Me 2 also saw growth over the original, whereas Cars 2 failed to pass Cars at the box office. So the trend is working in its favor, not against it.
I’ve seen numbers thrown around for a three day for Despicable Me 3, anywhere from 85-100M over three days. When you add in Monday and Tuesday, it will certainly pass 100M by the time the fireworks have finished.
You might think it’s biggest competition is The House, the new Will Ferrell comedy. You’d be wrong. Apparently, tracking on The House is terrible, with people projecting 12-15M for the weekend, as audiences continue to predictably cause another movie to bomb. We have not had a successful breakthrough comedy yet this summer. It would also be on the low end for Ferrell, who opened Daddy’s Home to 38M, and Get Hard to 33M recently. The House still has no RT score, which is never a good sign.
The film everyone has eyes on is Baby Driver, which has gotten excellent word of mouth and could be the “original” hit that audiences have been craving. If they’ve been ignoring all these sequels, they should jump on a new, original film, especially one that critics have loved.
1) Despicable Me 3- 90M 3 Day Weekend, 90M Total
2) Transformers 5- 20M 3 Day Weekend, 107M Total
3) Wonder Woman- 18M 3 Day Weekend, 348M Total
4) Baby Driver- 16M 3 Day Weekend, 22M Total
5) The House- 14M 3 Day Weekend, 14M Total
6) Cars 3- 13M 3 Day Weekend, 123M Total
7) 47 Meters Down- 4M 3 Day Weekend, 32M Total
8) The Mummy- 3M 3 Day Weekend, 75M Total
9) Pirates 5- 3M 3 Day Weekend, 165M Total
10) Rough Night- 2.5M 3 Day Weekend, 21M Total
11) All Eyez On Me- 2.5M 3 Day Weekend, 43M Total
12) Captain Underpants- 2.5M 3 Day Weekend, 70M Total