Box Office Predictions: Can Decent Reviews Push ‘Death Day’ Over 20M?

Three new movies open wide this weekend: Happy Death Day, Marshall, and The Foreigner. As of this writing, all three are Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s not a bad way to start things off. On top of that, Professor Marston and the Wonder Women is opening on 1200 screens (which is actually MORE than Marshall, despite having less hype). So, with four contenders for the top 10, and a disappointing debut last week for Blade Runner 2049 (I told y’all that wasn’t hitting 50M), who will end up on top?

That answer is definitively Happy Death Day, which aims to capitalize on both the Halloween vibe of October and the fact that Friday is the 13th. In addition, this horror/comedy has a PG-13 rating, and some decent reviews. I’ve seen projections for this hovering around 20M, but I’m going to be bold and say it has 25M potential. I know a lot of my friends have been looking forward to this, and the reviews will pull people off the fence. More and more, Rotten Tomatoes scores seem to make or break films. Also, with the genuine overall success that horror films have had this year, Happy Death Day will just be one more notch in that belt.

So where does that leave the other three? The Foreigner is getting surprisingly good reviews, with many noting a career-best performance from Jackie Chan. This could bring people out who feel like they’re seeing something special, and who haven’t seen a good Jackie Chan film in a while. Marshall, even though it has less screens, is still likely to outgross Professor Marston, whose subject matter just doesn’t scream “mass appeal”. Plus, Chadwick Boseman is a bit more marketable now as Black Panther than Luke Evans, who was Gaston earlier this year.

Of the holdovers, Blade Runner 2049 might not fall as hard as you’d think, as there are still people out there who love this film and are telling their friends to see it. Passionate fanbases always help. It won’t be enough to hold the top spot, but it won’t freefall with a 60-70% decline either.

Next week, the shittastic Geostorm finally opens against Only The Brave, The Snowman, Boo 2, and Same Kind Of Different As Me.

In other Box Office news, Girls Trip has outgrossed Bad Moms, so expect your favorite foursome to go on another trip in a year or so.

1) Happy Death Day- 25M Weekend, 25M Total
2) Blade Runner 2049- 14M Weekend, 61M Total
3) The Foreigner- 12M Weekend, 12M Total
4) It- 6M Weekend, 315M Total
5) My Little Pony- 5.5M Weekend, 17M Total
6) The Mountain Between Us- 5M Weekend, 20M Total
7) Marshall- 4.5M Weekend, 4.5M Total
8) Kingsman 2- 4.5M Weekend, 88M Total
9) American Made- 4.5M Weekend, 39M Total
10) The LEGO Ninjago Movie- 4M Weekend, 51M Total
11) Professor Marston and the Wonder Women- 3.5M Weekend, 3.5M Total
12) Victoria and Abdul- 3M Weekend, 11M Total

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