Box Office Predictions: ‘Jigsaw’ To Reign Supreme Again

After a short hiatus, Jigsaw is back. The horror reboot/sequel is expected to at least be the #1 film, with some believing it has enough juice to break 20M this weekend. Halloween isn’t on the weekend, which could help grosses a bit, as people are still “in preparation”. Still, Halloween weekend is not known for being a banner weekend for grosses. Saw III holds the record for a Halloween opener at 33.6M. For the Saw franchise, the second one is the highest grossing, while the sixth is the lowest grossing. There was some uptick for the seventh, Saw 3D, which is only the second lowest grossing in the series. Saw VI was also the lowest opener, with only 14M. Four out of the seven titles made 30M or more opening weekend. So if people are truly excited about Jigsaw, there is a potential audience there to be brought back. Reviews likely won’t matter here, as people are really just looking for the gore and the traps.

Suburbicon, starring Matt Damon and Julianne Moore, from director George Clooney, sounds like a winner. However, this dark comedy has a 38% on Rotten Tomatoes. Even with that, Matt Damon hasn’t had a wide release opening below 10M since 2011’s We Bought A Zoo, and before that it was the wide expansion week of Invictus in 2009. Even the poorly received The Great Wall managed to make 18M on opening weekend. Some critics believe this film will fall in the 7-8M range. I think Damon has just enough power to get this to right about 10M.

Now, who doesn’t quite have that same star power is Miles Teller, who drops his second film in two weeks with Thank You For Your Service. He’s anchoring this film, and he doesn’t have the same bankability that Damon does. The film is getting better reviews, with a current positive score on Rotten Tomatoes, and has been hyping the American Sniper connection in the trailers. Still, this looks like it has less mass appeal, and is unlikely to hit that 10M that Suburbicon might get.

Last weeks winner, Boo 2, is likely to see only a slight decline, like the first one, of around 40%. That should be enough to keep it in second. After this weekend, It should pass Shrek The Third to become the 54th highest grossing domestic film of all time. It’s already impressively outgrossed some major titles like Independence Day, the first Pirates of the Caribbean, and The Return Of The Jedi.

1) Jigsaw- 24M Weekend, 24M Total
2) Boo 2- 13M Weekend, 38M Total
3) Suburbicon- 10M Weekend, 10M Total
4) Geostorm- 6M Weekend, 23M Total
5) Happy Death Day- 5M Weekend, 48M Total
6) Thank You For Your Service- 4M Weekend, 4M Total
7) Blade Runner 2049- 4M Weekend, 81M Total
8) Only The Brave- 3.5M Weekend, 11M Total
9) The Foreigner- 3M Weekend, 28M Total
10) It- 2.5M Weekend, 323M Total

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