That’s the big question. We all know Justice League is going to be the #1 film. There’s no way Thor Ragnarok maintains enough momentum to beat Justice League, and it’s impossible for Justice League to bomb so hard it would lose to the third weekend of Thor. Even if it was a catastrophic failure, it would still make more than 50M this weekend. The biggest concern seems to be the lack of reviews. THe embargo isn’t lifted until tomorrow morning, which is the same day the film premieres. Thor had its reviews released long before the movie came out, likely because Marvel knew what it was sitting on. It’s concerning that DC doesn’t feel the same kind of confidence in Justice League.
So, the question across the internet is, how big will Justice League actually get? I’ve heard some believe it can do Batman V Superman numbers (166M), while others think it’ll match Wonder Woman (103M). I think the answer is somewhere in between. The reality is that Justice League hasn’t done enough to build up the right amount of goodwill for it to be an Avengers type film. They’ve kinda rushed their cinematic universe, with Flash, Aquaman, and Cyborg all being introduced through the matchup. By the time the Avengers film hit theatres, we had already been introduced to Iron Man, Nick Fury, Black Widow, The Hulk, War Machine, Thor, Loki, Hawkeye, and Captain America, as well as their gaggles of supporting characters. In fact, when Avengers dropped, not only had four of our heroes had their own solo movies, but every Avenger had at least been featured prominently in a role (not just a cameo). instead, Justic League is pretty much flat out introducing the world to Cyborg and Aquaman, while expanding The Flash who had a tiny cameo in Batman V Superman. As far as solo films go, really only Wonder Woman and Superman have had solo films, as Batman had to share his first outing with another JLA member.
So, it’s not The Avengers. I think also that some fanboys were burned by Batman V Superman, and Zack Snyder. Even though Joss Whedon stepped in at the last second to help Zack Snyder, it’s still a Snyder film, and for some, that’s a reason to stay away. Yes, Wonder Woman built up goodwill, and everyone now loves Gal Gadot, but this film is not directed by Patty Jenkins..
Opening against Justice League are the biblical animated comedy The Star and the book adaptation Wonder. Both films will likely open in the low teens, as there is some interest in the films, but not enough for either to truly break out.
1) Justice League- 130M Opening Weekend, 130M Total
2) Thor Ragnarok- 27M Weekend, 251M Total
3) The Star- 16M Opening Weekend, 16M Total
4) Daddy’s Home 2- 15M Weekend, 50M Total
5) Murder On The Orient Express- 14M Weekend, 50M Total
6) Wonder- 13M Opening Weekend, 13M Total
7) A Bad Moms Christmas- 7M Weekend, 50M Total
8) Lady Bird- 2M Weekend, 4M Total
9) Jigsaw- 1.5M Weekend, 37M Total
10) Boo 2- 1M Weekend, 47M Total