it’s about that mid point in the Oscar season, so I figured I’d talk about the race. Who Will Win, Who Could Win or Might Upset, and how close these races are.

BEST PICTURE:

Who Will Win?: Everything Everywhere All At Once

Who Might Win: Top Gun Maverick, All Quiet On The Western Front, The Fablemans, The Banshees of inisherin

Who Should Win: I’d be fine with EEAAO, but I’d be happier if All Quiet On The Western Front, top Gun Maverick, or Banshees Of inisherin won.

I think the other five nominees just don’t have enough behind them. I really think this is EEAAO’s to lose, but I acknowledge that not always does the most nominated film win, and it is weird. The second most nominated films are All Quiet and banshees. All Quiet has nine nominations, meaning eight guilds are currently being asked to consider and watch this film, 8 guilds that also vote for Best Picture. That’s more individual categories than any other film. There’s still a narrative for Top Gun “saving” cinema, which works more for it than Avatar since it did it first, and The Fablemans is a movie about movies. Any support Babylon and other cinema-centric films had, might be going to The Fablemans.

BEST dIRECTOR

Who Will Win: Steven Spielberg

Who Could Win: The Daniels

Who Should Win: My top choice isn’t nominated, so I’d be happy with Spielberg, The Daniels, Field, or McDonagh. If I was voting, I’d probably choose The Daniels out of these five.

We will have a much better understanding of the state of this race after the DGA’s, and even a little after the BAFTAs. If The Daniels can’t win either, I don’t see them winning the Oscar. if they lose to Spielberg at the DGA’s, and win at the BAFTA’s, that still gives Spielberg the edge, as he wasn’t nominated at the BAFTA’s. Spielberg hasn’t won since Saving Private Ryan, and his win that year was also a year where the votes spilt between Picture and Director. So there’s a possibility of repeating that here, where EEAAO and Spielberg win.

BEST ACTOR

Who Will Win: Brendan Fraser (The Whale)

Who Could Win: Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees Of Inisherin)

Who Should Win: Colin Farrell (The Banshees Of inisherin)

To be fair to that last answer, this is the one category I still have nominees i need to see. I’ve seen 8/10 best pictures, and all the Director nominees, but only 3/5 Actors. I still need to see The Whale. But, right now, II’d vote for Farrell. Mescal was great, and honestly Butler isn’t in my Top 10. Fraser’s speech at the Critic’s Choice has won him a lot of fans. he’s been so emotional and gracious this process, and he’s been around so long that I think even people who don’t like the film, or the idea of a fat suit, will still vote for him. However, with Butler we can look to rami Malek winning for Bohemian Rhapsody. However, Butler is young. Farrell’s performance is less showy, but he also happens to be in three other great films, and depending on how much his fellow actors watched, he could win for having a great year.

BEST ACTRESS:

Who Will Win: Michelle Yeoh

Who Could Win: Cate Blanchett, Andrea Riseborough

Who Should Win: I would honestly vote for Ana De armas.

I think there’s some shenanigans happening in this race. The Oscar’s coming out against Riseborough only turned more people in her direction, and made her more sympathetic. She went from “the nomination is the win” like de Armas, to dark horse. Blanchett has factors working against her, one of them being this would be her third Oscar, another would be her speech where she didn’t seem that happy to win, and the final straw is that she is actively campaigning for Andrea Riseborough. All she needs is to transfer some of her votes away, and that could be enough for Yeoh to be the first Asian actor or actress to win in a leading category.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Who Will Win: Ke huy kwon

Who Could Win?: No one else.

Who should win?: Honestly? Of these five, I’d vote for Gleeson. I’ve been a big fan of his for a long time, and I think he’s overdue.

Kwon has won almost every award possible. I think he’s far and away winning. This is the category that is over and done.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Who Will Win?: Carrie Condon

Who Could Win: Angela Bassett, Jamie Lee Curtis

Who Should Win?: Angela Bassett

The tea leaves are reading Bassett, but they are also reading Marvel, and we don’t know yet the effect that will have. I’m very cautious about saying Bassett has this in the bag. Condon has showed up basically everywhere, and it’s hard to think that a film with four acting nominations might not win any of them. I also believe that while Condon and the other three are all first time nominees, Bassett is the only one who isn’t. Her last nomination came before Stephanie Szu was even born. I also don’t think most of the people backing Bassett voted for her just to get a nomination. This is a tough one. I’m still saying Curtis has a shot because I think this race is close in general. If Bassett wasn’t in a Marvel film, giving that same performance, she’d be the leader for sure.

BEST ORIGINAl SCREENPLAY

Who Will Win: The Banshees Of inisherin

Who Could Win: EEAAO or The Fablemans

Who Should Win: Depends on what you’re looking for. Banshee’s is a better written script, but EEAAO is more truly original. I’ll give the edge again to Banshees though.

There is an outside chance that the combination of Spielberg 9who almost never writes one of his films) and the never won Tony Kushner could surprise with the Fablemans. However, this is mostly the question I posed earlier. Do you pick what comes off as a “writer’s script”, like something Aaron Sorkin might write, or do you pick the original concept with Everything Everywhere? This is one I won’t ever be solid on.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAy

Who Will Win: Women Talking

Who Could Win: All Quiet On The Western Front, The Glass onion

Who Should Win: I haven’t seen Women Talking, or Living yet, so i have to pick All Quiet.

Sarah Polley has been favored here the entire season. If this was her lone nomination, I’d maybe think something else would win, but I think she’s still the favorite. i see a path though for All Quiet, because it’s far more likely everyone is familiar with the source material, another thing Glass Onion doesn’t have to overcome. I don’t know how many people are actually familiar with the original Women Talking, and how that factors in on figuring out how well adapted it is, whereas All Quiet is considered a literary classic.

ANIMATED FEATURE

Who Will Win: Pinocchio

Who Could Win: Turning Red

Who Should Win: Pinocchio

I think Pinocchio, which should have way more nominations, is the clear favorite here. Unless there’s the hand drawn faction looking to award a more typical form of animation, in which case, Pixar does win a lot. If they turn away from stop motion, i think it benefits Turning Red the most.

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

Who Will Win: All Quiet On The Western Front

Who SCould Win: Theoretically, no one.

Who Should Win: All Quiet, though I’ve only seen two of the five nominees.

With Decision To Leave left out, the rule of thumb is that with these Animated, international, or Documentary categories, when a film breaks into the Best picture race, it’s basically guaranteed to win its initial category. otherwise… why wasn’t that other film nominated for Picture? how bizarre would it be for Close to win international Feature, but then All Quiet win Best Picture? Sounds silly, doesn’t it?

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Who Will Win: All The Beauty And The Bloodshed

Who Could Win: All That Breathes

Who Should win: I’ve seen two of these nominees, and I wouldn’t vote for either, so I would probably vote for House Of Splinters based on my level of excitement.

I’m a bit perplexed by this race, but All The Beauty keeps coming up with others who seem to have seen these films as being the front runner.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:

Who Will Win: Elvis

Who Could Win: Not Bardo.

Who Should Win: Elvis (I’m blind)

There’s a factor here we need to talk about. Elvis has a female DP, and she’s one of only three women to have ever even been nominated in this category. no woman has ever won. This has been an all boys club since it’s conception, and with the actual front runner Top gun Maverick inexplicably gone from this race, there’s never been a better time to finally choose a DP who has been working faithfully since the 80’s. She’s previously been the DP for Baz on Australia, but you’ve also seen her work in movies like Mulan, The Mountain Between us, and Shattered Glass. It’s time.

BEST EDITING:

Who Will Win: EEEAAO

Who Could Win: Whoever else ends up winning picture.

Who Should Win: EEAAO

The rule here is generally to pick the film with the most editing. That’s likely EEAAO. Also, this category links up a lot with the Best Picture winner. Most Picture winners at least are nominated here. So, I’ll give EEAAO the edge here.

BEST PRODUCTIOn DESIGN

Who Will Win: Babylon

Who Could Win: Elvis

Who Should Win: Having not seen Babylon, I’ll say EEAAO.

Babylon is the favorite here, for managing to recreate the golden age of cinema. It’s one of those times where the craft can win even when the film underperformed.

BEST HAIR AND MAKEUP:

Who will Win: The Whale

Who Could Win: Elvis, The batman

Who Should Win: Probably The Whale

Look, fat suit people, we need to talk. First, Elvis would likely need similar things done to Butler (as Elvis got fatter as he aged) and Hanks. Plus, the Penguin is never as skinny as Colin Farrell is. So, fat suits are everywhere. plus, these are the people voting for their own guild, and they do fat suits for a living. This is how Norbit got an Oscar nomination. The Whale is winning here.

COSTUME DESIGn

Who Will Win: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Who Could Win: EEAAO, Elvis

Who Should Win: Black Panther Wakanda Forever

The first one won this category, so there’s no reason to believe that expanding on that similar design, but adding namor’s people in the mix, plus the various new costumes that show Wakandans in mourning, should lead to a second victory.

ORIGINAL SCORE:

Who Will Win: The Fablemans

Who Could Win: Babylon

Who Should Win: The Batman (Yes, I’m salty about this.)

Aside from the fact that michael Giacchino’s score to The Batman is actually the best of the year, I hear a lot of people say how much the Oscars love Justin and his Babylon score. Look, Justin didn’t get nominated for First Man, so calm down. However, John Williams is like 90 years old, has been nominated over 50 times, and this is his last time at bat. I really think there are composers here who got in the game because they listened to a john Williams score, something that the others just don’t have.

ORIGINAl SONG:

Who Will Win: RRR

Who Could Win: Anything except that Diane Warren song

Who Should Win: Top Gun Maverick

The RRR song is fun. I love it. But Hold My Hand is my personal fave. Diane Warren will continue to lose. no one saw that movie, or has heard her song. It’s bizarre that she got nominated and the Oscar’s only looked into To Leslie and not this tiny film.

VISUAL EFFECTS:

Who Will Win, Could Win, Should Win: Avatar

Done with this category. let’s move on.

BEST SOUND:

Who Will Win: Top Gun Maverick

Who Could Win: All Quiet On The Western Front

Who Should Win: If you saw my list earlier, you’d know All Quiet was my pick.

i think the sound people pick the jet planes over traditional, but well done, war sounds.