It’s that time. We all lock in our predictions, and for better or worse, we become beholden to them. I’m still looking to increase my street credibility, so when I deviate slightly from the presumed front runner, I have to be certain about my deviation, or the payoff has to be worth it.

I plan to be 100% honest, so if you don’t want to follow me with my exact predictions, the alternate path should be obvious.

BEST PICTURE:

Seemingly an easy to pick category, except this is the one category that slaps you in the face if you think its too obvious. Sure, sometimes, the obvious front runner wins. But sometimes, Shakespeare in Love happens. or Crash. The hurt Locker. Moonlight. Parasite. So, you can’t necessarily call it quits just because the tea leaves are spelling out EEAAO. While it has won basically everywhere it needs to, the one time it was up against All Quiet On The Western Front was at the BAFTAS, which does have overlapping membership, and it lost. A lot. Meanwhile, All Quiet is the second most nominated film this year, tied with Banshees Of inisherin, and surprised a lot of people by winning several BAFTAS. Just because the Whatever Guild “Of America” didn’t nominate a German film for their guild awards doesn’t mean its weak. It may not have been eligible. Last year, Apple took home the prize, and this year, it might finally go Netflix’s way. 97% of the population is seeing hot dog fingers, but that’s not my prediction.

My Prediction: All Quiet On The Western Front

Could Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once

Dark Horses: Top Gun Maverick, The Banshees Of inisherin

BEST DIRECTOR:

The Daniels have been sweeping pretty hard. They lost the Globe, which has no overlapping body. They lost the BAFTA to Edward Burger who isn’t nominated. They are the easy favorite here, as Spielberg has been underperforming.

My Prediction: The Daniels (Everything Everywhere Al At Once)

Could Win: Steven Spielberg (The Fablemans)

Dark Horses: Todd Field (Tar), Martin McDonagh (Banshees Of inisherin)

BEST ACTOR:

This race has pretty much come down to Fraser and Butler. Butler is really young to win here, but most people are using the fact that we were just here with Bohemian Rhapsody, and that Butler is in a Best Picture nominee. They say Fraser’s The Whale underperformed, but I argue no. The nomination for Hong Chow shows the strength within the actors branch, the only one that matters here for this vote. Fraser’s speeches are also much better than Butler who seems like he’s preparing his method acting for a sequel. He’s from California. That’s not his natural accent.

My Prediction: Brendan Fraser (The Whale)

Could Win: Austin Butler (Elvis)

Dark Horse: Colin Farrell (The Banshees of inisherin)

BEST ACTRESS:

In the battle for Blanchett vs Yeoh, timing is everything. Yeoh just won the SAG award, and Blanchett is passive aggressively campaigning for her third Oscar. She’s also openly campaigned for Andrea Riseborough, whose To Leslie campaign could be a huge upset here. It’s very close, and both Blanchett and Yeoh have important precursors.

My Prediction: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once

Could Win: Cate Blanchett (Tar)

Dark horse: Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie)

SUPPORTING ACTOR:

I refuse to discuss this.

My Prediction: ke Huy Kwon (Everything Everywhere All At once)

Could Win?: It’s not close.

Dark Horse?: Judd hirsch (The Fablemans), because he’s just that old.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

in a three way race, this is a coin toss. you can go with Angela Bassett, who has a bunch of awards, but from bodies with no overlapping membership. people say it’s “her time”. you could go with Jamie Lee Curtis, another actress who has been in the business forever, after her SAG win. But, I’m going with BAFTA winner Carrie Condon, because people don’t always follow narratives, or “it’s their time”, and this category has an uncanny way of ending up the sole win for the nominated film.

My Prediction: Carrie Condon (The Banshees Of inisherin)

Could Win: Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once), Angela Bassett (Black Panther Wakanda Forever)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

My Prediction: Everything Everywhere All At once

Could Win: The Banshees of Inisherin

Dark horses: The Fablemans, tar, Triangle Of Sadness

ADAPTED SCREENPLAy:

My Prediction: All Quiet On The Western Front

Could Win: Women Talking

Dark Horse: Living, Top Gun Maverick

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Mandy Walker winning for Elvis would mean the first female ever to win in this category. So, of course, I’m predicting a branch full of dudes will keep voting for another dude. She’s only the third female ever nominated here.

My Prediction: All Quiet On The western Front

Could Win: Elvis

EDITING:

EEEAAO has been winning a lot, but Maverick also has a few wins. Sometimes, this category oddly links up with the winner of Sound, which is what caused me to go against the grain.

My Prediction: Top Gun Maverick

Could Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once

Dark Horse: The Fablemans

COSTUME DESIGN:

My Prediction: Elvis

Could Win: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

PRODUCTIOn DESIGN:

My Prediction: Babylon

Could Win: I don’t know. Babylon has a lot of precursors here. I think all 4 other nominees have an equal shot.

ORIGINAL SCORE:

My Prediction: All Quiet On The Western Front

Could Win: Babylon, The Fablemans

Dark Horse: Everything Everywhere All At Once

SONG

My Prediction: RRR

Could Win?: Black Panther Wakanda Forever

Dark horse: Top Gun Maverick

SOUND:

My Prediction: Top Gun Maverick

Could Win: Elvis

MAKEUP:

My Prediction: The Whale

Could Win: Elvis

VISUAL EFFECTS:

My Prediction: Avatar The Way Of Water

Could Win: Top Gun Maverick

ANIMATED FEATURE:

My Prediction: Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio

Could Win?: Nothing. This has literally won every award it could win.

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE:

My Prediction: All Quiet On The Western Front

Dark horse: Anything else. But, when a film like All Quiet gets nominated outside the race, it looks stupid to not award it here. If the other film, say Close, was truly the Best international Feature, then why doesn’t it have a Best picture nomination and 8 others?

BEST DOCUMENTARY

My Prediction: Navalny

Could Win: Fire Of Love, All The Beauty and the Bloodshed

ANIMATED SHORT:

My Prediction: The Boy The Mole The Fox and the Horse

Could Win: My Year Of Dicks, The Ice Merchants

LIVE ACTION SHORT:

My Prediction: Le Pupillar

Could Win: An Irish Goodbye, The Red Suitcase

DOCUMENTARY SHORT:

My Prediction: Stranger At The Gate

Could Win: The Elephant Whisperers

We will have to see how I do. I’m hoping for a full sweep.