Box Office Predictions: ‘Godzilla’ Stomping To #1

1) Godzilla- 80M Weekend, 80M Total

Expect big things this weekend from a big monster of a movie.  A lot of people have compared the ad campaign to World War Z, making it an apocalypse adventure on a global scale. What’s equally important here is that they’ve actually made a good movie, apparently. Godzilla is currently sitting at 84% on Rotten Tomatoes, higher than Million Dollar Arm, Neighbors, and Amazing Spider-Man 2. The only downfall is that the film technically lacks a bankable star, even though most people know who Bryan Cranston is by now. It does face some competition from the 2nd weekend of Neighbors, as well as Arm and Spidey. Those films won’t stop it from hitting #1, just from smashing any kind of record this weekend. Plus, since the last Godzilla was so god awful, there’s a chance people will wait until they personally know someone who can vouch for this film, instead of critics adoring it.

2) Neighbors- 30M Weekend, 98M Total

Neighbors has been holding up really well mid-week. I don’t expect it to have a super small drop, especially considering how much money it is already making, but somewhere from 40-45% is probably likely. Remember that neither new entry is a comedy, so there really isn’t new competition for their target audience.

3) Million Dollar Arm- 18M Weekend, 18M Total

Jon Hamm is untested at the box office as a leading man. This will be his test. The word is that this is a crowd pleaser, not a critic pleaser, so even though the film has a rotten score on Rotten Tomatoes, it could still be the kind of thing that audiences like. Plus, marketing to an underserved adult audience in May has worked well for limited releases in years past with films like Moonrise Kingdom and The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel. If those numbers can translate to a wide release, we should have a solid hit.

4) The Amazing Spider-Man- 16M Weekend, 173M Total

Look for another drop over 50% this weekend, since Godzilla will take away another chunk of Spider-Man’s audience.

Movie Review: Amazing Spider-Man 2 (B+)

5) The Other Woman- 6.5M Weekend, 72M Total
Movie Review: The Other Woman (B-)

6) Heaven Is For Real- 5M Weekend, 83M Total

7) Captain America: The Winter Soldier- 4M Weekend, 251M Total
Movie Review: Captain America: The Winter Soldier (A-)

8) Rio 2- 3.5M Weekend, 118M Total

9) Moms’ Night Out- 2.5M Weekend, 8M Total

10) Legends Of Oz- 2M Weekend, 6M Total

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