I’ve predicted a few films going big that flopped. My Terminator Genisys/Magic Mike XXL weekend was way off. I’m choosing again to be a little bold and not go with safe predictions. I think when people say 60M for Ant-Man, they’re ignoring the fact that Marvel has built up a ton of trust with their audience. When we see “Marvel Presents” now in cinematic form, we know it’s gonna be good. Guardians Of The Galaxy was a largely unknown property to most of the people who saw it, and yet it made over 300M domestically. To think Ant-Man can’t follow a similar trajectory is just silly. Guardians opened to 94.3M last summer, and while I don’t think Ant-Man will match that, I think 60M is a really low projection.
Also opening this weekend, and possibly also being under projected is Trainwreck. Sure, the film stars Amy Schumer, who is an unproven quantity, but the film has a 93% on Rotten Tomatoes, Judd Apatow behind it, and a solid supporting cast. Female driven films have also overperformed a lot this summer, with both Pitch Perfect 2 and Mad Max: Fury Road being examples. Sure, Magic Mike XXL flopped, but that’s a film that really attracts only one demo. Trainwreck is trying to broaden its demo by seeming like a raunchy comedy (that guys like) and adding Lebron James to the mix.
1) Ant-Man- 75M Weekend, 75M Total
2) Minions- 50M Weekend, 210M Total
3) Trainwreck- 25M Weekend, 25M Total
4) Jurassic World- 12M Weekend, 610M Total
5) Inside Out- 12M Weekend, 304M Total
6) Terminator Genisys- 7M Weekend, 81M Total
7) Magic Mike XXL- 6M Weekend, 58M Total
8) The Gallows- 4.5M Weekend, 19M Total
9) Ted 2- 3M Weekend, 78M Total
10) Self/Less- 2.5M Weekend, 10M Total