Box Office Predictions: ‘Compton’ Will Defeat Three Newcomers

Straight Outta Compton doesn’t even have any real competition this weekend. With good reviews, Straight Outta Compton’s 2nd weekend drop shouldn’t be too harsh. It’s been performing really strong midweek, suggesting perhaps a 50% drop in week 2.

Of the three new releases, Sinister 2 is probably most likely to do OK. The original made 48M domestically, and opened to 18M. A 10% on Rotten Tomatoes suggests that audiences aren’t going to like what they’re about to see. Films like Sinister 2 do most of their business on Friday anyway, so that will help define the course of the whole weekend.

Hitman: Agent 47 is getting worse reviews, hovering at 6% on Rotten Tomatoes. Expect word of mouth to be non existent and it will struggle for 3rd place with holdover Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation. The original made only 39M domestically, so there isn’t really much of a demand for another. Nor is there a current Hitman game to tie it in with.

Jesse Eisenberg’s American Ultra is getting the best reviews of the bunch, but still Rotten at 47%. Stoner comedies are often low openers, and at best become hits later. An exception would be Pineapple Express, but that had a better pedigree than this. Jesse Eisenberg isn’t a proven opener, so don’t expect too much from this. Kristen Stewart isn’t going to bring in audiences either for this.

1) Straight Outta Compton- 30M Weekend, 118M Total
2) Sinister 2- 18M Weekend, 18M Total
3) Hitman: Agent 47- 10M Weekend, 10M Total
4) Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation- 10M Weekend, 156M Total
5) American Ultra- 8M Weekend, 8M total
6) The Man From UNCLE- 6M Weekend, 26M Total
7) The Gift- 4M Weekend, 31M Weekend
8) Fantastic Four- 3.5M Weekend, 50M Total
9) Ant-Man- 3.5M Weekend, 164M Total
10) Minions- 3.5M Weekend, 318M Total
11) Vacation- 3M Weekend, 53M Total
12) Ricki and the Flash- 3M Weekend, 21M Total

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