Box Office Predictions: ‘In The Heart’ Of A Disappointing Debut

This weekend, the only film bold enough to dare to open was In The Heart Of The Sea. It basically sets up for a MASSIVE Star Wars opening next week, as all of the holdovers will be below 10M, with most being even below 5M. Little to no competition. Of course, a lot of films are about to lose their screens, as Star Wars is going to take up a massive chunk of everything at the box office. Haven’t seen The Martian yet? This might be your last chance. Bridge Of Spies? Should be gone next weekend. Secret In Their Eyes? Love The Coopers? Heck, you’ll be lucky to be able to catch The Night Before next weekend.

Not only is Star Wars opening, but so is Sisters and Alvin and the Chipmunks 3. Even if theatres only get one print of those two new releases, they’re probably committing at least a third of their screens to Star Wars. A 20 screen theatre is likely to be picking up anywhere from 8-10 prints of Star Wars, plus Sisters and Alvin. That leaves roughly 8-10 screens for holdovers. You’ll still be able to catch Katniss and her crew, but Mark Watney is likely to be out of commission.

In The Heart Of The Sea isn’t getting the kind of reviews it would need to stay afloat. Chris Hemsworth is not a bankable star yet. He’s a promising star, but outside of being Thor, he doesn’t really bank a film. Don’t expect much from the Moby Dick inspiration story this weekend.

Golden Globe bump? Most of the Golden Globe nominated films aren’t in wide release. Trumbo, Spotlight, Brooklyn, Room, Carol, and The Danish Girl all saw a lot of love, but none of them are in over 1,000 screens. The Martian is likely to go down below 1,000 this weekend, as is Bridge Of Spies. Creed may be the only film (other than Animated nominees) to be over 1,000 screens this coming weekend. I don’t think we’ll see much of a Globe bump from the nominees, though it will keep a bunch of struggling titles alive (like Trumbo) in the theatres that already have them.

1) In The Heart Of The Sea- 13M Weekend, 13M Total
2) The Hunger Games: Mockingjay pt 2- 11M Weekend, 244M Total
3) The Good Dinosaur- 10M Weekend, 89M Total
4) Creed- 9M Weekend, 78M Total
5) Krampus- 8M Weekend, 28M Total
6) Spectre- 3.5M Weekend, 190M Total
7) The Night Before- 3M Weekend, 37M Total
8) Peanuts- 2.5M Weekend, 125M Total
9) Spotlight- 2.5M Weekend, 20M Total
10) Brooklyn- 2M Weekend, 14M Total

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