Box Office Predictions: ‘Captain’ Stays Strong Over A ‘Monster’

Good lord, look at that top heavy top 10. It was bad last weekend, but it’s worse this weekend, as our #1 film is now in it’s second week, and 4-10 aren’t going to make a whole lot of money. In fact, if A Bigger Splash expands enough this weekend, it might even crack the top 10 after a healthy 22K per screen debut last weekend.

Captain America launched with 179M last weekend and is headed for a 58-60% decline in week 2. It will still win by a longshot. Jungle Book is probably set for a 30% decline this weekend, with no new entries. It’ll put it right in line with Money Monster’s top end.

I’m betting high on Money Monster, which is projected to do 10-14M depending on who you ask. I’m betting that Clooney/Roberts is enough to get people in the door, especially on a slow weekend. Plus, they’re getting decent press, debuting at Cannes, and covers of magazines like Entertainment Weekly. Julia Roberts just starred in the flop-tastic Mothers Day, but that wasn’t just on her shoulders (which made the disappointment hit even harder). Clooney also has seen his star drop at the box office a bit. Hail Caesar opened to only 11M (and also had the benefit of an ensemble), and he starred in the expensive disappointment Tomorrowland last summer. Again, lack of competition this weekend could end up helping Money Monster. I’m a little concerned that the film hasn’t screened for critics, because it’s totally the type of film that would thrive on strong reviews. When Adam Sandler films don’t screen for critics, we don’t factor that in, but when a Clooney/Roberts/Jodie Foster directed film doesn’t screen… we should be worried.

This weekends other new release, The Darkness, is only opening in about 1700 screens, so there’s only just so much it can do. It’s also undermarketed, despite starring Kevin Bacon. With no horror films in the top 10, and the last horror release being The Witch back in February, it’s possible it could be a sleeper hit… if people knew about it.

1) Captain America: Civil War- 80M Weekend, 300M Total
2) The Jungle Book- 15M Weekend, 307M Total
3) Money Monster- 13M Weekend, 13M Total
4) Mothers Day- 5.5M Weekend, 30M Total
5) The Darkness- 4M Weekend, 4M Total
6) Zootopia- 2.5M Weekend, 331M Total
7) The Huntsman- 2M Weekend, 44M Total
8) Keanu- 1.5M Weekend, 18M Total
9) Barbershop 3- 1.5M Weekend, 51M Total
10) The Boss- 1M Weekend, 61M Total

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